The global financial crisis of
2008 was the worst crisis since the 1930’s. Wall Street
honchos and Washington “leaders” tell the public that no one
could have predicted it. That apparently is the excuse for not
having taken steps to prevent it. But it’s a lie.
THE TRUTH
BEHIND THE GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS; REVEALED!
There was one analyst, Bert Dohmen,
who warned at the beginning of 2008, that starting in
September, 08 the global financial markets would teeter on
the brink. On 2007, he wrote a book, entitled:
PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN,
which predicted the current crisis. At
the time, Washington regulators were oblivious to the problems
which Bert Dohmen predicted would engulf the global financial
system.
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BEWARE OF “WALL STREET WISDOM”
By
Bert Dohmen- January 24, 2012
The U.S. is currently running unsustainable
deficits, which are just a few years away from
producing a crisis. However, they are still being
considered more of a nuisance by politicians, like
mosquitoes, rather than something that could cause
an economic collapse. When the politicians finally
awaken to the ominous facts, it will be too late.
Currently, they consider global warming a greater
threat.
For
2012, economists are very cheerful in the U.S. Forecasts of
2.5-3.5% GDP growth are heard. Therefore, they conclude that
the stock market should do well. Beware!
The
published GDP growth numbers are inflation-adjusted. The
inflation number used is much too low. If actual inflation
were deducted from nominal GDP growth, we would have a
negative GDP growth number. Do these economists ever go
grocery shopping to see what real consumer inflation is?
Anyone
who listens to economists and acts on those forecasts risks
extreme pain. There is not one crisis that the economic
establishment has ever foreseen. Do you know any economist who
in 2007 or even 2008 predicted the greatest global financial
crisis since the 1930’s? We did! But the economists at the
Federal Reserve, including its chairman, continued to insist
even in early 2008 that there would be no housing crisis and
no “contagion” of the mortgage mess to the rest of the credit
markets. Yes, those were the famous words of Ben Bernanke, who
is considered the foremost expert on the causes of the Great
Depression. Of course, economists didn’t predict that
Depression either.
More.
A NEW YEAR, but old CRISES will continue!
By
Bert Dohmen- January 8, 2012
Is a meltdown of the European
financial markets possible in 2012? Will China’s real estate
plunge turn into an economic crisis? The bulls will say “no,”
that the authorities wouldn’t let that happen. However, for me
the current progression of the crises is very similar to the
US in 2008.
In early 2008, I rang the alarm
bells predicting a 1929 event for the fall of the year.
(Please see my book, FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE). My conclusions
were based on technical analysis of the major markets,
including commodities, and the clues provided by the credit
markets. When a credit crisis develops, looking at P/E ratios
and other fundamentals is a waste of time. A credit crisis
envelops all assets.
Wall Street economists disagreed
with my view, citing the fact that the Federal Reserve started
cutting interest rates in 2007, and that a loosening by the
Fed “has always produced bull markets.”
Well, as we know now, that word
“always” didn’t work in 2008. As it turned out, the forecasts
in my book written in late 2007, PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, came
true.
More..
EUROPE: THE MERKEL-SARKOZY AGEND and YEAR-END PROGNOSIS
By
Bert Dohmen- December 5, 2011
The meeting between the leaders
of Germany and France last weekend apparently ended in
agreement. The two leaders will try to convince heads of the
EU member nations at the Dec. 8-9 European Union summit to
agree to some kind of compulsory fiscal and economic
cooperation.
The problem is that currently
there is no mechanism for member nations to have fiscal
discipline. If these countries had their own currencies
instead of the Euro, the markets would take care of the
“discipline” by selling those currencies. However, because
they use the Euro, they can just relax and engage in
unsustainable deficit spending to support their welfare
states.
Last week the finance ministers
of the Euro-zone agreed to a proposal to recycle central bank
loans through the IMF. That would supply as much as 200
billion euros ($270 billion) to fight the crisis. Germany
wants to get the IMF involved in the crisis which the IMF so
far has declined to do. The US is 27% of the IMF. That means
the US taxpayers are not only on the hook for unsustainable US
debt, but now also for the European mess.
More..
A
European Crisis Followed by a China Crisis
by Bert Dohmen, Nov.26,2011. Editor
of the Wellington Letter
The stock market was
following a bullish script until five days ago.
The S&P 500 and other major indices had formed a
bullish “pennant,” which usually leads to an
upside breakout. But this time it didn’t. On Nov.
17, the pennant was broken to the downside, a very
unusual behavior. The reason: Europe’s crisis.
As analysts, we become even more
alert than normal because when an important pattern breaks to
the opposite direction, it’s usually meaningful. Remember the
false downside breakouts in the indices on Oct. 4? That day we
said a false breakout usually leads to a sharp move in the
opposite direction. It happened! But there is never certainty
and therefore you must wait for the market to confirm that.
We had been looking for a good
year-end rally. The question now, will the Euro-crisis kill
that rally or is the recent decline just a short term
fake-out?
The situation in Europe is going
from bad to worst. On Wednesday, November 23, 2011, an auction
of government bonds in Germany basically failed. About 35% of
the 10-year bonds offered by the government were not bid for
as yields soared. The German central bank had to buy the rest.
This was a shock to the financial markets.
This has very serious
implications for Europe and for the world. Germany is one of
the strongest countries in the world and certainly the most
financially responsible in Europe. If there is a shortage of
buyers for those bonds, what will happen when the other
European countries come to market? They have huge financing
requirements over the next several years.
More..
These signals are incredible, especially considering that the DOW
JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE plunged 35% during the same time. Here you
can clearly see the superiority of our services.
How can you make money in Bull and Bear markets?
Whether the markets
SOAR or CRASH, you can
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Dohmen Capital Research!
Dohmen
Capital Research group
was founded in 1977 by Bert Dohmen as an economic
and investment research firm.
Our mission has been to provide serious investors and
traders with the most profitable investment
and economic advice, available
anywhere, via subscription services.
The advice will always be unbiased and
will not have any conflicts of
interest. We don’t hesitate to give
sell advice, or to sell short, when
our work calls for it.
The analysis is designed to help you make the right
choices and decisions on how to invest your money and
prosper over both the short and long-term. Serious
investors will find a wealth of profit-making investment
and economic guidance.
Bert Dohmen's long time experience in
the markets will be working for you.
The
firm’s services have achieved the highest acclaim. Dohmen
Capital Research offers the most highly
respected and sought-after advisory services for
investors worldwide. The
first publication was THE WELLINGTON LETTER,
which has achieved numerous awards of distinction. It
quickly made its mark on Wall Street with often totally
contrarian forecasts, such as the 20% prime rate in
1980, the roaring bull market in gold and silver,
followed by the 20 year bear market, and a decline in
U.S. T-bonds of over 40% in the late 1970’s among
others.
by Bert Dohmen,
Sept. 30,-2011,Editor
of the Wellington Letter
The three day rally early in the week got the
bulls all excited again. But if you are well
versed in technical analysis, you know that
counter-trend moves usually last 2-3 days.
There
always has to be a background “excuse” for a rally. This one
was a convoluted plan to allegedly resolve the Euro-crisis.
The plan was publicized on national TV. We noticed that it
was a rehashed proposal that was dead on arrival several
months ago. We called it “ridiculous.”
The plan
was so complicated that it looked like something designed by a
major Wall Street firm. Eventually these instruments blow up.
Obviously,
the Germans see through this and will reject it. German
finance minister Schaeuble called it “Bloedsinn,” which means
“non-sense, or stupidity.”
The brief
attempt to revive this “stupidity” at least served to produce
a stock market rally of three days, which may have been the
purpose of the whole maneuver.
The
approval of the German parliament for expanding the European
emergency fund (EFSF) this week really doesn’t bring a
resolution of the Greek crisis any closer. In fact, we believe
that the major European countries have already given up on
Greece.
A Greek
default is now inevitable and will result in restructuring of
the debt. This means that the holders of Greek bonds,
primarily the large European banks will have to write down
tens of billions of dollars of bonds. And that is the
problem, not Greece. This is why the global stock markets
are responding immediately to any news coming out of Europe.
You can be
sure that the focus in Germany, France, and other Euro-zone
countries now is to build a wall around their domestic banking
system, protecting it from a Greek default.
We predict
that Greece will eventually return to its former currency, the
Drachma, perhaps by year end, and will then renegotiate its
debt.
More..
by Bert Dohmen,
Sept. 8,-2011,Editor
of the Wellington Letter
The president gave
another talk accompanied by the top union leader
who earlier this year said on national TV that the
president better support the unions because they
are the ones that put him in the White House. The
president announced that the Transportation bill
should be extended so that 4,000 people
won’t lose their jobs. He urges the passage of a
temporary extension.
In the meantime, the consulting
firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. says that the
announced job cuts of large US companies are now 47% above
those in August 2010. Yes, they amount to a hefty 51,114.
It’s evident that the next big
stimulus will be massive infrastructure spending to keep the
labor unions from going bankrupt. Keeping 4000 jobs when
the economy needs 250,000 new jobs per month is not even a
drop in the bucket; it’s a drop in the ocean. It has
nothing to do with economic stimulation.
Economists are slowly realizing
that the economy is in a recession, but they can’t make a
sudden change in their forecasts. It’s all about “saving
face,” not about making an accurate forecast. I have no axe to
grind, no conflict of interest. Wall Street economists have
already reduced their GDP growth forecasts by 70%. But they
have not reduced profit forecasts. Amazing!
More..
That was the headline of the
August 28 issue of the acclaimed Bert Dohmen’s WELLINGTON
LETTER. The economic numbers released since that time
confirm that advice.
On Sept. 2, we got the
employment number: Zero jobs were added! It was the
first time since 1925 according to one commentator.
Expectations were for 80,000-100,000. Bert Dohmen advised his
clients the prior day: “…if our feeling of a bad
surprise comes true, and only 20,000 new jobs, or even fewer,
were generated, it would shock the markets.”
Bert Dohmen,
author of the prescient book written in 2007, PRELUDE TO
MELTDOWN, and FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE (2011) which he says is the
road map for the next 1-2 years, has been writing since May
that the economy is in recession. In fact, according to many
numbers, we never even got out of the 2008-2009 recession.
As we go into autumn,
Dohmen’s work shows that the 2008 crisis in the US will
now be experienced by Europe, and then by all the emerging
markets. Europe will be the trigger again in September.
The politicians and policy makers in Europe aren’t any more
pro-active than those in the US.
MORE
PERFECT MARKET CALLS!
by Bert Dohmen,
Sept. 2,-2011,Editor
of the Wellington Letter
Wall Street analysts say: “No one can time the
market.” However, one analyst, Bert Dohmen,
editor of the acclaimed WELLINGTON LETTER, does it
on a regular basis. On August 17, the exact day of
the high of the bounce from the August 8 low,
Dohmen advised in his SMARTE TRADER service to
sell short again. The DOW plunged 419 points
the next day.
Five days
later, on August 22, he issued an advisory to clients:
1
STOCKS: “Close out all short positions…”
“Our
indicators show that the major indices are just about back at
the plunge lows of early August, but that
selling pressure is substantially lower.
This
market is set up for a rally.
With sentiment so negative now, it’s obvious that the short
side is “over-crowded.” And we never want to be on the
over-crowded side of a trade.”
2.GOLD: “Gold hit $1900. This is a
good time to take profits.Sell!”
What
happened the next day?
1.
The DOW gained 313 at the high.
2.
GOLD plunged over $61 at the low, and the
following day plunged almost $100.More..
PHASE II OF THE GLOBAL CRISES
by Bert Dohmen,
August 8,-2011,Editor
of the Wellington Letter
We have warned our clients since early May
that a new global crisis was dead ahead. Here are
the front page headlines of our WELLINGTON LETTER
over the past three months:
The
May 9 issue headline: RETURN OF THE DOUBLE-DIP
The
May 30 issue headline: IMPORTANT TOPS!
The
July 19 issue headline: FINANCIAL CRISIS—PHASE II is
BREWING
The July
30 issue headline: THE
NEXT “PERFECT FINANCIAL STORM”
If you
are not a client, ask yourself if the above could have saved
you a fortune. Our clients were short. Is this a “soft-patch,
a buying opportunity, and all that non-sense?
Here
is an EXCERPT from our August 6 SPECIAL BULLETIN:
On
Friday, the market soared at the opening, with the DJI rising
over 170 points within the first 15 minutes. The alleged
reason: the Employment report was allegedly “better” than had
been expected. That was ridiculous. The real reason:
intervention by the Fed’s PPT to slap “lipstick on the pig.”
More..