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Financial Apocalypse

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The global financial crisis of 2008 was the worst crisis since the 1930’s. Wall Street honchos and Washington “leaders” tell the public that no one could have predicted it. That apparently is the excuse for not having taken steps to prevent it. But it’s a lie.








There was one analyst, Bert Dohmen, who warned at the beginning of 2008, that starting in September, 08 the global financial markets would teeter on the brink. On 2007, he wrote a book, entitled: PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, which predicted the current crisis. At the time, Washington regulators were oblivious to the problems which Bert Dohmen predicted would engulf the global financial system. 











































































































































































    Timing is  Everything!              

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by Bert Dohmen March 26,2014

The bulls say the market weakness is a buying opportunity. As usual, we have a different view based on advanced technical analysis, which Wall Street doesn’t believe in.

Contrary to what many novices believe, it is not possible to successfully and precisely predict the date of a market top in advance. Trying to do that is merely an educated guess. However, using advanced technical analysis, we have a very good chance to identify a top when it occurs, often within a day or two.

When bears have become virtually an extinct species, and bulls are fully loaded up with stocks waiting for higher stock prices, the markets usually do what they must in order to frustrate the bulls: they decline. With all the hoopla in the media about rising stock prices, we point out that the DJI is now at the same level as it was on December 23rd last year. There has been no progress for three months!

Corporate buybacks of their own stocks have provided the fuel for this bull market. Watch for an exhaustion of these buybacks. Shareholders will oppose buybacks in a declining stock market when the shares that are bought back accumulate big losses.

A sign of the vulnerability came on March 19th, when Fed Chair Yellen, in a press conference, said that the Fed might hike interest rates in six months. In seven minutes, the DJI plunged to a loss of over 200 points. It recovered less than half of the loss by the close. But the next day, the loss was made up. Now we get to the critical phase for the markets. Will the market continue upward, or was the key reversal last Friday the top for a while, or perhaps for the year?

As we wrote in our trading services on March 21st, for us an important signal of an approaching market top is when Wall Street firms are in a rush to launch a number of IPOs. In the next week, there will be 20 IPOs launched. That shows urgency. It’s logical that in normal times Wall Street would not want the markets to experience an overload, and thus they would spread these IPOs over a number of weeks. More


by Bert Dohmen March 4,2014

The “labor participation rate” (LPR) is now at 63%, the lowest in 36 years. That’s the number which doesn’t count people as “unemployed” if they haven’t had a job for a year. According to the government, it will continue to decline to a rate of 61% by 2017, the lowest ever.

But through the magic of governmental accounting, this will actually reduce the unemployment rate. Theoretically, the way it’s calculated, if no one is working, thus giving a zero “LPR,” then the unemployment rate would be zero. Well, the only place with a zero unemployment rate is in the labor prison camps of Russia and North Korea.

Household income, a very important economic number which is the fuel for retail sales, has been declining since the year 2000, down 7.2%, inflation-adjusted. That is an incredible decline. That’s what is causing the malaise in retail sales. And that causes empty shopping malls and dying strip malls, which further reduces jobs.

Just as the public is duped by economic numbers out of Washington, investors are duped by the causes for the rise in the stock market. The biggest buyers of stocks over the past five years have been companies buying back their own stock (per Bill Gross of PIMCO). This reduces the number of shares outstanding, which increase the “earnings per share.” This rise in EPS is then touted to attract more investment buying for those stocks. The stock price rises, the stock options that top executives hold appreciate, allowing them to continue the big buybacks. It’s a beautiful scam and produces an illusion of strength.

But the low volume on the exchanges, which is even much lower when you take out high frequency trading (about 70% of volume), shows that there is not much participation. All the big traditional buyers of stocks, such as pension funds and mutual funds, have been sellers of stocks in the past five years.

How long can this mirage of stock market strength continue? The answer: Until there is an exogenous event driving stock prices down. This would slow or stop the buybacks when companies see their sales and profits decline. More


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Dohmen Capital Research group was founded in 1977 by Bert Dohmen as an economic and investment research firm. Our mission has been to provide serious investors and traders with the most profitable investment and economic advice, available anywhere, via subscription services. The advice will always be unbiased and will not have any conflicts of interest. We don’t hesitate to give sell advice, or to sell short, when our work calls for it.

The analysis is designed to help you make the right choices and decisions on how to invest your money and prosper over both the short and long-term. Serious investors will find a wealth of profit-making investment and economic guidance. Bert Dohmen's long time experience in the markets will be working for you.

The firm’s services have achieved the highest acclaim. Dohmen Capital Research offers the most highly respected and sought-after advisory services for investors worldwide. The first publication was THE WELLINGTON LETTER, which has achieved numerous awards of distinction. It quickly made its mark on Wall Street with often totally contrarian forecasts, such as the 20% prime rate in 1980, the roaring bull market in gold and silver, followed by the 20 year bear market, and a decline in U.S. T-bonds of over 40% in the late 1970’s among others.

Learn more about Bert Dohmen and Dohmen Capital Research



by Bert Dohmen January 22,2014

IBM came out with a shockingly disappointing earnings report, with sales in China down a whopping 23%. They blame the lack of orders from the large SOE’s (state owned enterprises). According to the Wall Street Journal, that consists of a 17% drop in sales of its hardware group last quarter, and “a stunning 40% drop in Chinese hardware sales.”

The Wall Street Journal reports that last quarter, sales in its “growth markets” (international) fell 9%. “IBM doesn’t think business in China will improve for another quarter or two.” Perhaps IBM should be planning on “a year or two.”

The China bulls are very much surprised. They shouldn’t be if they had been observing the China scene more closely.

Two years ago, I wrote an e-book, THE COMING CHINA CRISIS. Of course, that was not a popular topic because China was touted as the big growth engine for the world. However, to me the current situation has similarities to 2007 when I cited all the “canaries in the mine” in the US financial markets in my book that year, PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN.” The book correctly predicted a global crisis in 2008. The bulls on Wall Street didn’t like that book either, as it shattered their bullish story for investors.

In June of 2013, when China experienced a severe credit crunch and over-night interest rates soared from 7% to 25% in one day, I warned in our WELLINGTON LETTER that this was the big event that the invisible, subsurface erosion in China’s financial system was emerging. Such a credit crunch does not go away by itself. It sets off a chain of events, shutting off credit to private companies, which then accelerates into an avalanche of loan defaults.

The lack of credit creates a private sector recession. Money printing usually helps companies with good connections to the government, but it doesn’t do much for the general economy.

The current China credit crunch is still being denied. In fact, the government has prohibited the use of the two words in articles and on the internet. The government papered over the aftershock of the June crunch, largely by pushing money into projects which only benefit the big, powerful families controlling the SOE’s. And then the government produces some dubious economic statistics showing good growth. However, the fact is that when lending to private firms stops, the economy stops. The crunch could easily get worse and eventually lead to significant social protests.

The China central government has done its best to ‘manufacture’ positive economic statistics which we consider largely false. But western economists believe them almost religiously.

The crunch in June 2013 could be for China what the summer of 2007 was in the US when the commercial paper market froze. At the time, I considered the commercial paper event the last piece of evidence that the credit market meltdown had started and would lead to a financial crisis in 2008. That’s what propelled me to write the book.

At the time, it was incomprehensible to me that the commercial paper market freeze-up event didn’t get much attention. But when major firms, like Goldman Sachs, GE, Dow Chemical have to go to Warren Buffet for loans because they can’t get it anywhere else, it’s serious. And that’s what happened in 2007-2008. Yet, Wall Street stayed bullish, at least in the media, even as the subprime mortgage derivatives melted down.

I see the same thing happening in China now. We started a China newsletter, THE CHINA BOOM-BUST ANALYST, two years ago. But US investors couldn’t understand that China was very important to their entire investment portfolio. The IBM story this month probably will soon be forgotten, perhaps in the next 48 hours. But the China recession will worsen.

You may say that GDP growing at 7.7% can’t be a recession. Well, that’s the political number produced by the bureaucrats. Watch the private sector PMI published by HSBC-Markit which I expect to go below 50, indicating ‘contraction.’ It is now barely above that.  For the full article, go to:



by Bert Dohmen 12.13.2013

As of Nov. 22, the major indices have risen for seven consecutive weeks. The sub-surface negative factors continue to increase. However, as long as the major indices rise, most money managers must ride the trend…at least until year-end.

The DJI and the S&P 500 made new all-time highs almost each day over the past several weeks.  The daily gains aren’t stellar, but they show how well the PPT (Plunge Protection Team of the US Treasury) can execute the agenda of making the market rise. They can’t make the economy recover, so they focus on paper assets that they can control.

In our Wellington Letter of Oct. 20, one month ago, we wrote:

In the meantime, the market and the high performance stocks are selling at valuations not seen since the tech bubble top in late 1999 to early 2000. Traders made a lot of money ahead of that, but they had to be able to turn on a dime. Those who started shorting the market too early because of the stratospheric valuations and many other negatives experienced pain. Yes, sometimes it’s best not to analyze and just “go with the flow.” (But you have to know when the end has arrived.)

In October we even mentioned a potential “run for the roses” going into year-end. Now we hear analysts in the media talking about a “melt-up,” which is the same. The short sellers have to be very good at picking the right stocks to short. There are many, but shorting stocks with the most excessive valuation is still a little risky unless you have patience.

We did see two episodes of strong selling this month; each lasted three days, depending on the index. That’s how “distribution” is done: sell on big volume, and then let the market rise on lower volume in order not to discourage the buyers. ”Distribution” is when the big, smart money sells to the less experienced money manager. We have to keep in mind that this rally is not based on fundamentals but on excess money. More


Fake' Unemployment Report Shocker

The article below was written by the founder of our firm, Bert Dohmen and posted on the excellent It is most important at this time, as it confirms what Bert Dohmen has been saying for years: US economic statistics are unreliable. Yet, investors and money managers world-wide bet billions of dollars every day on such numbers. Here is the article on

On Nov. 19, 2013 it was revealed that the “unemployment number” released on Oct. 5, 2012 was “faked.” It appears that Washington is copying the methods of China.

On that very day, Oct. 5, 2012, we wrote that the numbers were false in our Smarte Trader service. We explained how it was probably done. We e-mailed our analysis to G.K. of CNBC, who talked about it on CNBC. Jack Welch picked that up, and posted on Twitter. The rest is history.

This is what we wrote on Oct 5, 2012, just before the last election:

From Oct. 5, 2012 Smarte Trader

My View:

The U.S. unemployment rate announced today plunged below 8%, from 8.1% to 7.8%. Economists had expected a rise to 8.2%. When 2 plus 2 doesn’t add up to 4, there is great skepticism…Has Washington adopted the Chinese method of producing economic growth:  pressure the statisticians?

Do you smell a rotten fish somewhere? In China, the party bosses tell the statisticians the number they want, and magically, that’s the economic number they get. The big job creator, our president, now has the lowest unemployment rate since he took office. However, only 114,000 jobs were added in September versus a revised 142,000 in August. So, it actually worsened.   More



By Bert Dohmen 10-22-2013

For the past days, the stock market has celebrated the temporary end of the debt ceiling debate in Washington. The  big questions for investors and traders:

Is the rally an opportunity, or will it be a trap?

Our advisory services nailed it on Oct. 16 when the stalemate in Washington was resolved.  This could mean incredible opportunities are ahead for active traders who have the best professional analysis and guidance, using advanced technical analysis, available to them. But beware of the big trap at the end, whenever that may come.

In our services for short term traders, we wrote:

“…. scanning several thousand charts, our best guess is that we could see a very speculative period in the markets. This would be like late 1999 which led to the March 10, 2000 top and the subsequent market plunge. But that period was exceedingly profitable for us and our subscribers to this service. The gains of many stocks were incredible, but not based on fundamentals. In fact, at the time, we suggested that buying stocks without earnings would produce bigger gains because no earnings metric could be used. That’s exactly what happened.

Such speculative phases are caused by excessive money sloshing around in the financial system. The Fed has created at minimum $3.7 TRILLION, which is not used for economic activity because there is practically no growth. Therefore, that liquidity goes into speculation. We believe that a very profitable period from now until year-end is ahead for active traders. We aim to help you capitalize on that. More


 ( 9-2-2013)

The chart below is of the DJI (daily). Note the 3 peaks, each one slightly higher than the last. The 3rd peak is usually the last one after which the market can decline more forcefully. Point 3 was a new high without follow through. We saw what happened after points 1 and 2. The DJI declined about 1000 points. Note the indicator below, which also has 3 peaks, but each one is lower than the last. That’s a negative divergence.

And finally note the short diagonal line connecting the two recent bottoms. That should provide some short term support and a brief bounce. After that bounce, that line should be broken to the downside. Of course, just because technical rules call for that, doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen. The PPT (The President’s Working Group on the Financial Markets) is still there to support the market, until market forces eventually overpower them.

Click here to see the chart:DJIchart




By Bert Dohmen August 29, 2013

In the almost four decades we have been trading the markets, we have learned that when Wall Street firms start selling their own investments, including firms they control, it’s a sign that a top is being formed.

In late June 2007, the huge private equity firm Blackstone (BX) went public. At the time, we had warned of a monumental financial crisis to occur in 2008, while Wall Street analysts were very bullish. Our technical analysis told us that a very important bull market top was being made. And then we read the news that BX had advanced its IPO date by one week. To us that indicated urgency and that a serious freeze-up in the markets was imminent.

As it turned out, doing the IPO one week earlier allowed the firm to get $4.5 billion in cash for its stock certificates. One week later it might have been too late. It was excellent timing. Obviously their reading of the conditions in the credit markets required urgency. The high on the day of the IPO was $38.00. It hit $3.55 in early 2009, for a 90% decline. The buyers got stuck. More


“Timing is Everything”

By Bert Dohmen August 9, 2013

How much would it be worth to YOU to have the guidance of a highly respected analyst who has predicted every important market decline over the past 35 years?

How much would it be worth to have the analysis of someone who predicted the 20 year bear market in gold in 1981, after having been bullish from 1977 to 1980? It happened! The next gold bull markets started exactly 20 years later and his clients were on board.

How much would it be worth to get the advice of someone who in 1982 called US Treasury bonds “the opportunity of a lifetime.” Zero-coupon T-bond funds appreciated more than 20-fold over the next 30 years.

What would it have been worth to YOU to have the continuing market assessment of someone who in 2007 predicted a “global financial crisis” in 2008. In fact, he felt so strongly, he wrote a book in 2007, PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN. As you know now, it happened!

All the above was done by Bert Dohmen, founder and President of the Dohmen Capital Research group. And now his analyses and forecasts are available to you for only $49 per month. That’s a deal. Professionals pay him $2400 per hour for his advice. Traders and investors pay up to $6000 per year.  More

CHINA: A Credit Crisis  

Credit is the lifeblood of any economy.

By Bert Dohmen July 25, 2013

When credit tightens, either because of intent by a central bank, or through market forces, the economy goes into recession…or worse.

China’s money supply (M2) growth in May was up 15.8% compared to one year ago. Some economists say that since there is plenty of money growth, the credit crunch will be just “temporary.” We must point out that the growth of the money supply does not determine whether or not there is a credit crunch. The availability of credit depends on confidence and the willingness of lenders to lend.

Take the case of the US at the start of the 2007-2008 Credit Crisis: credit markets became totally frozen. The Commercial Paper (90-day corporate I.O.U.s) market froze and even large companies like GE couldn’t roll their paper on expiration. We saw this immediately as a crisis scenario, but amazingly no one in the financial media rang the alarm bells. That was the start of global crisis.

And what was US money supply growth at the time? Like China, it too was in the double-digits, rising from a 12% to a 15% growth rate by the end of 2007. In spite of this, the credit crisis intensified culminating in an Armageddon scenario in 2008.

During the last six months China has injected nearly $1.6 trillion in new credit (21% of GDP) into the economy. If there can be a credit crunch even with that much credit being added to the system, then you know that the problems are big.

Currently, China has a serious credit crisis. No private borrowers can get a loan, regardless of creditworthiness.

Our advice at this time:  BEWARE!

Will a China Credit Crisis infect the Global Markets?

By Bert Dohmen  June 24, 2013

The week of June 17, 2013 had some very important clues for what is ahead for the markets. The Federal Reserve had a two day meeting. The statement of the Fed after the meeting, and the press conference of Fed chief Ben Bernanke were widely misinterpreted in our opinion. The markets tumbled. Does this create a buying opportunity or is it a warning sign?

Our June 21 issue of our CHINA BOOM-BUST ANALYST present the results of our work and our predictions. These will be very, very important for your investment portfolio. Here is an excerpt:

China’s Credit Crisis

China has the largest credit bubble in the world. We have tracked the private sector credit in China for the past several years. It’s a parabolic curve, and as market observers know, parabolic moves eventually collapse. We discussed this in our e-book, THE COMING CHINA CRISIS (150 pages) one year ago. It was greeted with great disbelief, similar to our book written in 2007, PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, which predicted that 2008 would see a potential meltdown in the US system. Very few people believed it and the financial media ignored it.

On June 20 the global markets were shaken by the big overnight surge in short-term interest rates in China. The SHIBOR rate (similar to the short-term LIBOR interest rate in the western world) soared to over 11% overnight. The overnight repo rate soared over 25%.

The markets are sending an important message. What is really behind the market turmoil of the week of June 17? You will get Bert Dohmen’s interpretation in the CHINA ANALYST as well as the other services we offer.

China is extremely important for all business leaders and investors, whether you ever intend to invest in China (which we don’t) or not. You may ask, “why should you spend your valuable time reading about China if you have no intention of trading or investing in the country?”

Because whatever happens to China will tremendously influence the world economy and your investments. Many large US and European companies depend on China for a significant portion of their sales and profits. These companies are household names. A crisis in China will have global repercussion.

You can stay ahead of the crowd by being knowledgeable about what is happening in China, not what the media is telling you about China. Amazingly, 99% of all analysts still believe the fiction of 7.5% GDP growth in China. Knowing the truth, our subscribers have been able to adjust their portfolio accordingly.

Being prepared for what’s ahead will help your portfolio thrive during this age of turmoil. For less than $31/month you can stay ahead of the crowd. The CHINA BOOM-BUST ANALYST is the most authoritative China research publication you can find at such a low cost. Go to:

Bert Dohmen did an important interview about China on Dec. 22, 2012. Judge
yourself if it was on target.
Here is the link:


By Bert Dohmen  June 1, 2013

To buy stocks right now is to bet on the willingness of the major central banks (that is, Europe, the Federal Reserve, Japan, and China) to create as much money as possible to prevent a stock market and economic disaster.

Prudent analysts say the ratio of a country’s debt to its GDP is already too high for many countries. Our view is that no one knows what is too high.

Whether debt is 100% or 260% (Japan) of GDP, who says the central banks can’t double it? Who is to say that in a market crisis, the Fed or BOJ in Japan can’t double their monthly infusions? In fact, we consider that ratio somewhat artificial and perhaps meaningless. GDP measures total economic activity. What does it have to do with the government’s debt? The government doesn’t produce the GDP. It’s comparing apples and oranges. It would be more relevant to compare governmental debt to tax receipts.

Before the Greenspan/Bernanke era, the current rate of money creation would have been unthinkable. But anything and everything is possible now. Imagine, the Fed is now buying from 70%-80% of all Treasury securities sold to finance the deficit. There is no reason it can’t go to 100% or higher. We are not saying it is good or prudent, just that there is no limit… until no one wants to accept your currency.

Believing that at some point the central banks will “get religion” and reverse their questionable policies is like believing in Santa Claus. History shows that the worse the conditions become, the greater the policy errors of governments. Just read about the German hyperinflation of the early 1920s, or Zimbabwe, or China, or John Law in France. To have a sense of history now is to be ahead of the pack. More


By Bert Dohmen  May 4, 2013

Over the next several months, we will see some disappointments in reported corporate sales and earnings. Those stocks will suffer. Will the stock market care? So far it hasn’t.

 Operating earnings are down 2% year-over-year, yet the stock market rose to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 is selling at a P/E of 15.5. With operating earnings declining over the past year and the economy now apparently in a weak spell, stocks are no longer cheap. However, Wall Street doesn’t advertise the “operating earnings,” and uses “reported earnings,” which are better. Operating P/E ratios are not such bargains.

 We again have stocks like Linked In, Amazon, Google, etc. selling at P/E ratios reminiscent of 1998-1999. But they are still rising. It’s a signal that there is a lot of speculative capital available for stock because it has nowhere else to go. Eventually, the ending won’t be pretty, similar to the year 2000. But for now, big profits can still be made.

 The essential thing is to have an advisor who uses technical analysis to catch the tops. And that is what we have done consistently for the past 35 years.

 If you believe that there will be some type of economic recovery later this year, then buying select stocks will still pay off. Our technical indicators are positive on a many stocks.

 As always, you must be willing to sit through some periods of volatility. Nothing goes up in a straight line. If you buy stocks now, you have the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan, and China’s central bank on your side. They are basically providing an insurance that the markets will not have a big decline. That’s a very good guarantee…until eventually it doesn’t work anymore. But for now, it’s the best guarantee investors could ever hope for.

The Fed hopes that its $85 billion per month monetary injection will eventually help to produce a stronger economy. Right now that liquidity goes into speculation, such as real estate and stocks. More


By Bert Dohmen  April 18, 2013

We are now seeing a ‘war on gold.’ For the past several months we have been mentioning that the gold bullion banks and the central banks were putting lots of downward pressure on paper gold so as to discourage those who thought that gold was better than paper money.

Although we have been bullish on gold for the long term (i.e. 5 or more years), we turned bearish on the intermediate term. In our Feb. 15 issue of our WELLINGTON LETTER, we wrote:

In the longer term, gold has broken the 200-day m.a., which by definition says it’s in a bear market now. A rally now would not necessarily mean a new uptrend. There is a lot of resistance to overcome on any upmove. To look at a chart objectively, pretend you don’t know what it is. Then ask yourself: would you buy it or sell it? That’s the way to keep your emotions out. Now that all indications have turned bearish, the big hedge funds are known to have significantly reduced their positions and the big bullion banks are easily manipulating the price downward. Because there are so many individual investors in gold, we could see a further, self-feeding decline.

We were especially bearish on the gold and silver mining stocks. However, we did not think that gold would plunge $250 in three days as it has done.

We view this as an orchestrated campaign to discourage people who think that gold may be a better asset than paper currencies. After an $84 per ounce loss on Friday, most of it after the London trading closed, gold plummeted $155 on Monday.

Last week, the Establishment issued a warning about what was ahead. First Goldman Sachs (GS) gave a ‘sell signal’ on gold. GS said: “We believe a sharp rebound in gold prices is unlikely. The fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than our forecast, as aggregate speculative net long positions across Comex futures and gold ETFs remain near record highs.”

 GS gave a six- to twelve-month target of $1,490 and $1,390. GS is not an impartial observer. They are heavily involved in precious metals trading for their own account. Such warnings from GS are usually given before the event and too often ignored by the general public. They are not forecasting; they’re telling you what the agenda is.

In our trading service, SMARTE TRADER, we sold the mining stocks short about two weeks ago. < More


(excerpted from the March 31, 2013 Wellington Letter)

Our attempt at poetry:

Pop the champagne corks, dance in the street, celebrate the record high S&P!

Well, it’s only by a fraction, but it is still a new high. The S&P 500 closed at 1569, about five points above the previous all-time high set on Oct. 9, 2007. Long-time subscribers will remember that at that time we gave a “sell” signal just two trading days later. Those who believed that a new high was bullish had a bad surprise, as it was followed by the 2008 crisis.

Last Friday’s new high was made on the last trading day of the month and the quarter. Big hedge funds had every reason to support the market going into the close today in order to maximize their performance fees. Next week we should get a better idea whether a pullback or market correction will be allowed.

As you know, there are many clues that the rally of the last three months involved a bit of engineering. We have discussed the role of the PPT (the President’s Working Group on the Financial Markets), which has the authority to produce “orderly markets.” We believe that there has been mission creep and that the mission now is to produce a rising market. Just notice that almost each day, the DJI is up 40-60 points, even on days when the market tumbled early in the morning based on adverse news.

Additionally, since May 6, 2011, HFT (high-frequency trading) operations have no longer acted to knock the market down, even on a daily basis. On that day, the DJI tumbled almost 1,000 points in less than an hour. The regulators at first blamed it on a “fat finger,” that is, some clerk with a fat finger pressing the wrong key on a computer. That excuse was laughable. More





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