Dohmen Capital Research Institute

BERT DOHMEN'S ECONOMIC PLAN REVEALED!

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD

THE TRUTH BEHIND THE GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS; REVEALED!

THIS BOOK MAY SAVE YOU A FORTUNE!

BUY NOW !

BERT DOHMEN IN THE MEDIA

Click above to read Media articles

USEFUL TOOLS

THE FABLE of the “FEARFUL” DEFICITS

RENEW YOUR SUBSCRIPTION

SUBSCRIBE NOW AND GET IMMEDIATE ACCESS!

SMARTE TRADER SAMPLE

SMARTE TRADER Q & A

WELLINGTON SAMPLE

FEARLESS FUND SAMPLE

FEARLESS FUND Q&A

"45% of GLOBAL WEALTH destroyed"

U.S. stocks have lost $11 trillion in market value since the October 2007 bull market peak (to March 6, 2009).

Since the start of 2009: U.S. stock market losses (listed stocks) are $2.6 TRILLION.

Globally, the stock markets of the world have lost $30 TRILLION!! (about 60% of their value since the peaks).

Global losses in stocks, commodities and real estate, are over $60 TRILLION, the greatest wealth destruction in world history. It's exactly what I predicted in my book PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, written in 2007.

Consider that total money creation by the central banks around the world, not counting what has been announced but not delivered, may be around $4 trillion. There is no way the bailouts will end the global crisis.

MUSTARD SEEDS or TERMINAL VELOCITY?

June 9, 2009... In the media, virtually every economic statistic released is called a "mustard seed" or a "green shoot." When the job loss goes to 540,000 from the prior 650,000, they cheer just because the rate of job losses is decelerating. They don't even point out that the statistics are greatly manipulated to make them look better. We actually have over 23 million people unemployed right now, which includes the "discouraged" and part time workers. Be year end, we could be closer to 30 million. The "green shoots" refer to the statistics showing a lower rate of acceleration. That's why you often hear the words "second derivative" which comes from higher math and is the expression for "acceleration." More...

June 8, 2009... BEAR MARKET RALLY, NOT A NEW BULL MARKET

The stock market has had an eye-catching rally. Everyone is talking about the S&P 500 gaining 40% since the March 6 low. But we have to put that into perspective. The index dropped 46% from the October 2007 top to the March low. Just to get back to the level of October 2007, it needs almost a 100% gain. So, it is quite short of that. In fact, I believe it will take a decade or much longer to get back to the 2007 top.. During the Great Depression, the first phase of the bear market ended in 1930. Then the DJI rallied 51%. But after that, the DJI plunged another 64% into the 1932 low. More...

June 7, 2009.... PROFITS OR ACCOUNTING MANEUVERS?

Banks have been reporting surprisingly good earnings. Just a few months ago it appeared that the entire banking system would shut down, or be nationalized. And now they report billions of dollars of profits. What's going on? Well, first of all, the "mark to market" rule was changed as we reported two months ago. That gives banks breathing room. It was necessary. But now banks are taking advantage of it and reducing "loan loss reserves." In other words, if a bank sets aside $5 billion for losses of assets in its portfolio, now it may decide it only needs $2 billion. Therefore, it reduces the loss reserves by $3 billion and puts it into earnings. And thus, suddenly there is a $3 billion profit. More...

Read below "ARTICLES OF INTEREST"

PROFIT FROM THE MELTDOWN NOW!

The world's financial system is shaking. Some of the largest financial institutions are either bankrupt, insolvent, need huge bailout by the government, or on the way of going out of existence.

There was one analyst, Bert Dohmen, who warned at the beginning of 2008, that starting in September, 08 the global financial markets would teeter on the brink. On 2007, he wrote a book, entitled PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, which predicted the current crisis. At the time, Washington regulators were oblivious to the problems which Bert Dohmen predicted would engulf the global financial system.

Read our views below:

UNSURPASSED PERFORMANCE!

Bert Dohmen Market Calls: 2007-2008

These signals are incredible, especially considering that the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE plunged 35% during the same time. Here you can clearly see the superiority of our services.



	How can you make money in Bull and Bear markets? Whether the markets SOAR or CRASH, you can prosper with Dohmen Capital Research! Dohmen Capital Research group was founded in 1977 by Bert Dohmen as an economic and investment research firm. Our mission has been to provide serious investors and traders with the most profitable investment and economic advice, available anywhere, via subscription services. The advice will always be unbiased and will not have any conflicts of interest. We don’t hesitate to give sell advice, or to sell short, when our work calls for it.
The analysis is designed to help you make the right choices and decisions on how to invest your money and prosper over both the short and long-term. Serious investors will find a wealth of profit-making investment and economic guidance. Bert Dohmen's long time experience in the markets. The firm’s services have achieved t will be working for you. he highest acclaim. Dohmen Capital Research offers the most highly respected and sought-after advisory services for investors worldwide. The first publication was THE WELLINGTON LETTER, which has achieved numerous awards of distinction. It quickly made its mark on Wall Street with often totally contrarian forecasts, such as the 20% prime rate in 1980, the roaring bull market in gold and silver, followed by the 20 year bear market, and a decline in U.S. T-bonds of over 40% in the late 1970’s among others. Learn more about Bert Dohmen and Dohmen Capital Research ARTICLES OF INTEREST SHOCK AND AWE from WASHINGTON Excerpt from March 24, Wellington Letter Thomas Jefferson said in 1802: Banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. TRILLIONS MORE FROM THE FED AND TREASURY: Last week we got "shock and awe" from the two-day Fed meeting and the subsequent announcement. Interest rate goals remained at 0-0.25%, but it was the rest of the announcement that propelled the markets. The big item: The Fed basically decided to inject another huge $1.25 trillion into the financial system. This is in addition to the $1.8 trillion it has already put in. More... THE BEST BEAR MARKET RALLY YET: Technically the March bottom looks good so far for a rally. We caught it right on target (in fact, to the hour) on late Monday with Friday's (March 6) message, not after the fact. The big rally started the next morning. How is that for catching the bottom? Hopes are that the economy will now recover because of the latest actions by the government. My view is that it's like donning a raincoat in a storm and hoping it will make the storm end. It may keep you somewhat dry for a while, but it won't stop the storm. The Fed and Treasury moves will only reduce some of the damage, they won't stop the economic and financial contraction. Although the actions will diminish the financial crisis for awhile, nothing they did or will do in the future will resolve the economic crisis. More... GOLD: A "KEY REVERSAL" DAY By Bert Dohmen, founder of Dohmen Capital Holdings, Inc. March 2009 GOLD had a very important day on March 18. The previous day we wrote in our SMARTE TRADER: "There is still a chance that it will make one more trip below the 900 area." We were looking for 885 for a target in case that happened. Well, it did happen the next day, as gold tumbled in the early hours to 883, but then soared after the Fed meeting and the announcement. It reached a high of 954 within 90 minutes. It was spectacular. That's a huge reversal. The volume before and after the low was very high. That makes this a "key reversal." Such reversals usually mean that an important low is in place. Furthermore, the chart formation I see now is very bullish. The next target is over 1000 and then 1050. However, first there should be a pullback. More... WHAT IS "CAP and TRADE?" From Stratford; Cap and Trade Program , March, 2009 Our colleague John Maulding quoted an analyst from Stratford on "Cap and Trade."It gave a good description: One of the most ambitious proposals of the Obama energy plan is a national cap and trade program. Under such a program, the government would set emissions standard for various industries, allowing companies that emit less carbon dioxide than their allotment to trade their excess "credits" to those who are emitting above the cap. The initial allotments of carbon credits will incite one of the more contentious domestic debates in the coming years, as will the steepness of the emissions reduction curve. In addition to a national goal of 80 percent by 2050, there are questions about what the goal will be in 2020 or 2035. More... WHAT'S AHEAD? March 2009 The investment markets are in secular, not cyclical, bear markets. That means that they will last much longer than all the bulls could ever imagine, while economic conditions will continue to deteriorate at a record clip. Bankruptcies will soar, and with that, unemployment and all the bad things it will trigger. Government will quickly see that its programs are ineffective. Therefore, they will bring to bear the coercive power that only governments possess. Kiss freedom goodbye, as there are virtually no safe havens. Even gold, which we believe is in a major bull market, will not be "safe." Eventually, when gold soars over $1300, government will once again consider confiscation. You see, they can't allow people to have an alternative to paper money. Protectionism will flourish, as we can see with the latest draft of the "stimulus" which requires 100% U.S. content for any equipment used on projects financed by the government. Imagine trying to find trucks that have no U.S. parts, or requiring all steel to be from the U.S. Quality will plunge, and prices will soar as the outside competition is eliminated. Social unrest, class warfare and crime will soar over the next 10 years. And the blame will be put on "free markets" although they had nothing to do with it. 2009: Year of Crisis and Severe Pain Excerpt from the Wellington Letter, Feb. 23, 2009 These two headlines from past issues (of the Wellington Letter) presented our forecasts for 2009. Now we have further confirmation that these were totally on target: Headline Nov. 24, 2008 issue: THE SERIOUS PAIN STARTS IN 2009. Headline Dec. 8, 2008 issue: AFTER the FINANCIAL TSUNAMI comes the ECONOMIC CRISIS Headline Jan. 13, 2009 issue: 2009: YEAR of PAIN, DISILLUSIONMENT and CHALLENGES If you are optimistic that politicians in Washington and around the world will find a solution to the crisis, just consider this: We are now two years into the crisis. In the U.S. they have now allocated a fantastic $10 TRILLION to bailouts and other alleged solutions. Other countries have also spent billions trying to rescue their banking systems. And yet, the stock markets of the world and the economies are not only continuing to decline, but are doing so at an accelerating rate. Even a blind man can see that none of this is working. But the theory in government is always: “If something doesn’t work, do more of it.” The outlook is bleak. A "BAD BANK" for BAD ASSETS? The Size of the Problem Excerpt from the Wellington Letter, Feb. 23, 2009 The problem with all the bailout so far is that the poor management teams of the banks, the ones that created the current mess, are still in place, still collecting outrageous salaries and getting big bonuses, although regulators are now looking at everything. In my opinion, any solution should include firing this crowd. My bet is that the government will fabricate some contraption that won't work. No program of the past five months has worked in spite of a cost of $9 trillion. Can anyone tell me why the taxpayers have to bear the losses of bad management at the banks? We should be enraged. Have the banks done us any favors with their 20%+ interest rates on credit cards? More... "LONG TERM HOLD" IS DEAD IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET Excerpt from the Wellington Letter, Feb. 23, 2009 Billionaire investor Warren Buffett says the U.S. is engaged in an "economic Pearl Harbor." In an interview on "Dateline NBC," the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc., said the nation's economic situation is not as bad as World War II or the Great Depression, but it's still pretty severe. I think he knows that it is as bad or worse than the 1930's at least in regard to the size of the problem. But he feels that his view influences the psychology of others. He is probably right. That’s why it pays you to disregard anything such corporate leaders say at this time. They see their roles as "cheerleaders," not prognosticators. Therefore, their views as expressed in the media are at best worthless, and realistically, they are destructive to your wealth. More... BAILOUTS DON'T WORK From the Wellington Letter Jan.13,09 Citigroup is talking a joint venture, merging its brokerage unit, which is a money maker, with Morgan Stanley's money management and brokerage. Apparently, the Federal government made it clear that Citi isn't getting any more money from Washington and that they had better start raising capital elsewhere, or find other solutions. You see, when these firms have to find solutions because Uncle Sam says "no," they start finding them. As long as Washington continues to hand out money, the large firms would rather stand in line for the handouts then find a solution on their own. The crisis would last half as long if Washington would get out of the way. It would be painful, but a short period of great pain is better than a long-term "repression." (Washington will never use the word "depression.") Unfortunately, Washington will not get out of the way. The new President has been compared in the media with President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. And we have been predicting that he will adopt all the same policies, which will guarantee at least a 10-year "repression." And if there is no war in 10 years, it will last longer. More... CHINA IS THE CABOOSE, NOT THE LOCOMOTIVE From the Wellington Letter Jan.13,09 We hear the bulls say that China will pull the world out of the global recession and credit crisis. We strongly disagree. China is the caboose, not the locomotive. China's government announced a "stimulus" package of $586 billion recently. But a lot of these programs were already in the planning stages, so the actual "new" stimulus is less than advertised. And much of it won't come till 2010. The government is committed to keeping GDP growth at above 8%. Our estimate is that they will have trouble keeping it above 4%. No one really trusts the government's numbers. But there are ways to estimate growth. For example, China's industry minister has said industrial output needs to expand by 12% next year if the economy is to retain its 8% expansion rate. In November, industrial production grew by just 5.4% on an annual basis. More... THE NEXT SUCKER PLAY: INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTING The so-called "research" departments of brokerage firms are having a tough time finding anything to recommend without looking ridiculous. Of course, the age-old advice of "buy and hold for the long term" is always at the top of the list, no matter how much their customers are losing. But they have to find an industry where the average investor can get excited about the "compelling" story. And that is now "infrastructure." It's similar to the "emerging country debt" of the early 1990's, which in the end imploded. This debt was packaged nicely by Wall Street firms into pools, just like the mortgages of the past 6 years, and participations were sold around the world. The fees were sky high, but the buyers didn't understand any of it reading the prospectus, which of course was the purpose of the prospectus. The story was that "countries don't default." That worked until they did. And then the holders of these bonds found out that you can't foreclose on a country. The investment scam of the past 6 years was the same, except that Wall Street packaged mortgages into pools, and sold participations as CDO's. We warned about these two years ago. Now everyone knows how that scam was played. More... UNEMPLOYMENT SURGES AS THE ECONOMIC CRISIS INTENSIFIES Excerpt from January 13, 2009 Wellington Letter The much awaited and feared employment report today brought the dismal news we and others had been expecting. Although the past two days economists had expected 600,000 job losses in December based on a report from a payroll processor, it came in slightly less, at 524,000. It was the worst job loss since 1945. Since September last year, 3 months ago, 1.9 million jobs have been lost. That's a record since they have been counting these numbers. Imagine, that's 15% of all employed people. For the year 2008, 2.589 million jobs were lost, just a little less than the 2.75 million lost at the end of World War II. The unemployment rate climbed to 7.2% in December, the highest in almost 16 years. However, according to some analysts, if the unemployment rate were calculated the same way it was in previous recessions, the current unemployment rate would be a whopping 11.4%. Furthermore, if you count "discouraged" workers who are no longer looking for a job, and those who are working part-time but want full-time, the unemployment rate would be 14%. Our forecast is that eventually we will see an official rate of 12%. That will cause all the bulls to reevaluate the cheerfulness. On January 3, 2009 the President-elect said unemployment could go to 10%, which is much higher than the consensus of economists. Eventually, he will agree with my numbers. More... UNEMPLOYMENT SOARS........THE WORST IS STILL AHEAD Excerpt from Dec. 8 Wellington Letter Until now we have had a financial crisis, which affected mostly firms and people in that industry, and larger firms that could no longer get credit. But until September people weren't that worried. Everyone considered this to be just a normal "economic slump." I even stopped talking to people I met about what I thought was ahead, because to them it wasn't credible. My job is not to "convince" someone of my viewpoint. But now comes the "awakening." Since October, the consumer has awakened to the dismal state of his finances. Hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs, and they can't find new ones. The crisis is now coming to "Main Street." This is the most painful part, and we are just in the early phase. It is obvious that all our forecasts of the past 18 months are coming true, unfortunately. Until now consumer spending had plunged because of the inability to get credit. Now comes the harder part: People losing their jobs, which reduces the income of many families to welfare levels. The economic pain will be much more severe than anything we have seen so far in the financial markets. More... MORTGAGE TIME BOMBS Excerpt from Wellington Letter Dec. 8, 2008 issue Option-adjustable-rate mortgages were very popular during the housing boom. They allowed borrowers to pay interest only for as long as five years. The monthly payment was capped and if rates went up, the difference was just added to the loan. However, the loans also have a cap. Once that cap is reached the loans are "recast." Because they have only paid interest for several years, and thus have less time to the end of the loan, the monthly principal repayment is much higher. More... THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING WALL STREET By Bert Dohmen : Post-election, Nov. 2008 NY Mayor Bloomberg said that Wall Street may lose over 140,000 jobs. Will there be anyone left? Who will fill those buildings? And how will the owners of the buildings service the mortgages? To my knowledge, there is only one Wall Street investment bank remaining, Lazard. The other two, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley converted to regular banks so they would be eligible for bailouts by the Fed. The "virtuous cycle" of the boom years is now in reverse. It's like a big rock dropped into a pond. Soon all the ripples envelop everything on the pond. The investment banks were leveraged 40 to 1, with the special consent of the SEC in 2004. William Donaldson, co-founder of a large Wall Street firm, was the head of the SEC. The fox guarding the henhouse. With that much leverage, if your investments decline 2.5%, you have lost 100% of your equity. Imagine, trying to deleverage that! And that is what the financial firms are trying to do now, with taxpayer money. More... WARREN BUFFETT COULD BE WRONG! October 28, 2008 . By Bert Dohmen, founder of Bert Dohmen's Wellington Letter Over the years, Warren Buffett has been an extraordinary investor. But times change, and those who don't recognize the changes, will find out that some of the old theories no longer work. The stock of Mr. Buffett's company, Berkshire, is down over 21% in just the last 5 months. Yes, I know, the long term investor knows that eventually the stock market goes up again. But what they don't tell you is that sometimes it can take 20 years or more for the market to break even. Mr. Buffett recently wrote an op-ed piece in the NYT. He wrote that he is buying stocks now in his "personal" account, where formerly he only had U.S. Treasury bonds. He confessed that he didn't know where the stock market would be a year from now, but he did "know" that "5, 10, and 20 years from now most major companies will be setting new profit records." How does he know? .More... LONG TERM: WHY THE WORST IS STILL AHEAD Excerpt from Bert Dohmen’s Wellington Letter of Oct. 13, 2008 Although the stock markets should have a rally, looking out over the next year, the worst is still ahead. As we have advised previously, if you want to see whether financial stress is easing or intensifying, just watch the credit spreads. One I like is the TED Spread. It’s the difference in yield between LIBOR and T-bills. When it widens, it indicates stress. Currently, it’s at the highest level ever. But even that is fictitious, as no one is lending at the LIBOR rate – or any other. The credit markets are frozen. That means the global economies are now plunging off of a cliff without a safety net below. The wheels of commerce are grinding to a halt. During this year the freeze in the vital commercial paper (CP) market intensified. I warned about this late last year when the CP outstanding diminished by about $1 TRILLION because new CP’s could not be sold. This market is used by companies to get short-term (90 days) money for corporate purposes, such as preparing for seasonal cash needs like Christmas. Now that market is basically shut down. More... ON THE ROAD TO MELTDOWN Excerpt from Bert Dohmen’s SMARTE TRADER service of Oct. 6, 2008 It was a pretty interesting day (10-6-2008). The selling started even before the NYSE opened, and the DJI was down over 200 quickly. The selling continued all day. Rally attempts were very week. I saw technicals as negative as I have ever seen. In fact, I was thinking it was similar to the Oct. 1087 crash. At one point I saw only one stock of the S&P 500 with a gain. It was unbelievable. At the low, the DJI was down almost 800 points. Then a rally attempt in the last hour had some legs and at least reduced the loss by 50%. Although to some that may seem like a bottom, just because they want it to be, “hope” doesn’t change the markets. There was almost a total absence of buying all day, and the buying late in the day looked like short covering. You see, traders don’t want to be heavily exposed to the short side overnight because the central banks can always come up with something before the opening the next day. Today, the Fed increased its lending line, where it swaps valuable Treasury securities for worthless mortgage paper from the banks, from $450 billion to $900 billion. That’s an incredible amount. They are obviously panicked and are trying desperately to prevent a meltdown. More... ANOTHER WEEKEND—ANOTHER CRISIS Excerpt from the WELLINGTON LETTER, September 14, 2008. It seems that weekends are now used by officialdom to handle one financial crisis after another. And yet, economists tell us that everything is fine, the economy is doing well although a little on the weak side, and the stock market is a great bargain. My view is that these people are either deaf, dumb, or blind, or all three. This weekend it's the Lehman Brothers crisis. Our view has been that it's ready to go out of business. In our SPECIAL BULLETIN of Sept. 8 during the Fannie and Freddie crisis, we wrote: No one can know if the rally will last one or two days, or maybe even a week. In fact, it may not even last to the end of Monday. We will see. But an end to the credit crisis is far, far away. Its important to remember that everything that the Fed and the U.S. Treasury have done over the past 12 months, which includes the Fed using half its balance sheet, i.e. $400 billion of Treasury securities, has not resolved anything, but only prolonged the inevitable. The major indices last week started breaking down to new bear market lows, unemployment is soaring, and the economy is in a certain recession that the guys with their Ph.D.'s won't recognize until next year. The ill-defined Fannie and Freddie bailouts won't be any different. It's like using an aspirin to fight terminal cancer. We wrote about the intensifying credit crunch: More...