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TRADING A HISTORIC MARKET CRASH
NASDAQ 2000
The track record of SMARTE TRADER speaks for itself. The results have made it the premier and most successful subscription service for short-term traders available anywhere.
The chart shows some of the timing recommendations in the year 2000. You can see for yourself how much that advice would have been worth to you.
The bear market of 2000-2002 was the most devastating market decline, in terms of dollars, in history. Wall Street continued to advise investors to “hold for the long-term.” Well, that advice cost many investors utter devastation of their retirement nest egg. And it had nothing to do with the attack on 9/11. But our subscribers were prepared. They sold and sold short.
In 2002 one of the leading mutual fund families had over 16% of its huge stock holdings with a loss of 90% or more. So much for “Buy and Hold.”
But one group made significant profits: short-term oriented traders, either professionals or those who had the advice of the best professionals in the business. And that includes subscribers to SMARTE TRADER.
SMARTE TRADER helped investors and traders avoid the traps… and profit from the sharp declines by selling short. It’s the happiest bunch of investors you’ll find anywhere. In fact, in early October 2000, I compared the NASDAQ chart to that of gold in early 1980’s. The similarity to the gold crash was striking. Here is what I concluded:
When the NASDAQ Composite was near the 3000 level, Bert warned that it would eventually decline to 1500 (the high had been over 5000). That prediction was considered “extreme”, but that target was reached!
You see, chart patterns reflect human emotions: fear, greed, complacency are all depicted. And these emotions always repeat. If you know how to interpret the charts, you will be far ahead of the crowd.
This chart shows his major forecast of important turning points in the year 2001.
Subscribers know that Bert usually, but not always, catches such turns within 1-2 days.
Note how he pinpointed the bottoms of declines, and then the rally tops. For a trader, it is important not to be perpetually bullish or bearish. The market goes in waves. A trader must go with the waves. You must be like a champion surfer: when the wave runs out, you get off.
NASDAQ 2001
AFTER THE CRASH: GOING AGAINST THE CROWD
Look at September 2001. After the terrorist attack of 9/11, there was gloom and doom everywhere. Bert wrote at the time, that once the stock markets reopened, after a brief shake-out the market would rise strongly. It did!
The Nasdaq Composite rose 42% over the next 10 weeks. His “buy signal” of Sept. 24 and 27 (depending on the service) were right on. Subscribers smiled as the perennial “gloom and doomers” stayed on the side, and short-sellers were bloodied. For Bert’s subscribers it was a great opportunity.
And in early 2002, Bert advised to sell short again, just when Wall Street had turned bullish. The subsequent decline was devastating for those following Wall Street advice. The plunge didn’t stop until October that year.
Technical analysis shows what the insiders are doing. These insiders are the first to know when business is deteriorating, when their company is running out of cash, that the doors for new financing are closed, etc. Wall Street analysts won’t tell you that until you have lost most of your money on the stock. But it takes years of experience to interpret the signals correctly.
Bert analyzes the markets 8-12 hours a day for you, using the most sophisticated analysis techniques. As a subscriber to SMARTE TRADER you will have confidence in your trades. You will know that a pro with over three decades of trading experience is on your side.
REFLATION and BERT’S BUY SIGNAL
An experienced trader has no preference whether to buy or sell short. After closing out all short positions in early October 2002, SMARTE TRADER advised buying soon thereafter. The bottom of the devastating bear market had been seen. He wrote:
“Very interesting is the fact that the close on Oct. 9 was 776.76 (on the Dow). We round that up and we get 777…the closing low on the Dow in the big bear market of 1982, 20 years ago, was 776.90 on Aug. 12, 1982. This is 777 rounded off. Coincidence or a signal?”
You see, they do “ring a bell on Wall Street.” Our technical indicators gave very loud “Buy” signals. In spite of all the skeptics and “gloom and doomers,” we got on board. The bottom of the worst wealth devastation in history was in place! In early January, 2003, Bert wrote a headline: “REFLATION BRINGS OPPORTUNITIES.”
He wrote: “Yes, they do ring a bell on Wall Street. And this one will go down in history as the one that changed the investment markets for many years to come.” I turned very bullish on gold and wrote in January 2003: “This could be one of the most important investment areas for investors for several years… After having been bearish on gold for 21 years, except for the intermittent rallies which lasted up to one year, I am now a gold bull.”
SP 500/ 2001-2004
Over the next 11 months, gold stocks soared. Look at some of these gains: Newmont Mining +70%, Bema Gold +207%, and Gold Star +283%. The HUI Gold Bugs index of mining stocks was up almost 72%.
In early January 2003, I also strongly recommended the homebuilder stocks. At the time, Wall Street was bearish on the complex, citing that the “housing bubble” had burst.
Over the next 11 months, this was one of the strongest groups. Here are some of the gains
on my recommended stocks: D.R. Horton +137%, Ryland +148%, Centex +113%, Toll Brothers +99%, etc.
Such gains are certainly better than the 1% offered by money market funds… or even the single digit gains produced by the majority of hedge funds this year, which charge you heavy fees, such as 20% of the profits, plus a management fee.
AN INCOMPARABLE TRACK RECORD
In January of 2005, national magazines carried the story that some of the well-known billionaires of the world had sold the dollar short in excess of $20 billion, expecting a further decline. But Bert predicted a sharp rally in the US dollar, stating that these billionaires would lose billions of dollars in their short positions. The dollar rallied. Bert was right!
For the same reasons, he advised selling international bond funds, which had done so well for subscribers as the dollar declined in 2004. It was very timely advice.
Once again, ask yourself how much the above advice would have been worth to you in just the first month of the year? The subscription fee is inconsequential in comparison.
This is the kind of advice that makes SMARTE TRADER a favorite for professionals and amateurs alike.
You can easily see that the “long-term hold” approach which Wall Street preaches doesn’t work. In fact, it can lead to financial ruin. For the next several years, you have to be a trader, or active investor, to make money in the markets. And that’s what our SMARTE TRADER can do for you.
"While most investors Weep, SMARTE
TRADER Subscribers Reap."
HISTORY OF A TRACK
RECORD
When the market topped out and reversed direction on
April 23rd, 1998, a "sell" signal was issued by Bert Dohmen, the founder of the
award winning Bert Dohmen's WELLINGTON LETTER.
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| Commentary on June 16,
1998: "The way the blue chips were kept down today while the rest of the market was
strong is indicative of a short-term bottom. As you can see everything is being engineered
for a good rally the rest of the week." |
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| On January 24, 1997, Bert
Dohmen declared that a short term market top had just been made and that even if the blue
chip indices made a slightly higher high over the subsequent weeks, the broad market
should undergo a strong correction. As it turned out, January 22 was a short term top in
the broad market. The correction in many sectors was severe over the next 3 months.
On May 2, 1997, Bert Dohmen issued a fax alert to
subscribers to immediately get fully invested. He declared that a "melt-up",
rather than a "melt-down" predicted by the bears, would occur. |
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| Recommendation made on July
11, 1997: "Fixed income investors should consider the Zero Coupon mutual funds, such
as the Target Funds offered by the American Century Mutual Fund Group. The Zero Coupons
are in effect a leveraged play on long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds. A gain of 50% over the
next 3 years is probable. |
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Simply put,
you need to know what to do, and when to do it. Maybe it's time to take advantage of the
timing strategy of these Bert Dohmen services. |
Dohmen Capital Research Institute, Inc., was
founded by Bert Dohmen over 25 years ago. It's goal is to provide investors of all types
with the most prescient analysis and advice regarding the major investment markets, the
economy, interest rates and currencies.
The Bert Dohmen Story - How A Contrarian Has Beaten The Wall Street Pro's Again And
Again. With His Advice, You Too Can Prosper In Bull And Bear Markets!
When Bert Dohmen first began releasing his
forecasts and recommendations to the public, his views were greeted by the Wall Street
establishment with skepticism. Why? In the first issue of Bert Dohmen's Wellington Letter,
in early 1977, he predicted a bear market. Wall Street considered it impossible. Only 3.8%
of investment advisors were bearish (Investor's Intelligence, Larchmont N.Y.). Yet a 15
month bear market started.
Bert Dohmen soon got noticed by The Wall Street Journal
and the press, as well as some of the most successful investors in the U.S. and overseas.
Since that time, he has been advising
thousands of investors and business leaders. And he's regularly sought out by the media's
astute insights. Why? Because of his uncannily accurate forecasts.
AN UNMATCHED TRACK
RECORD
With over 38 years of investing, Bert Dohmen has refined
his predictive models to pin-point changes in the markets. Many of his predictions were
totally out of line with the advice being given at the time. Yet, he was proven right time
and time again. Here are just a few of his calls over the years:
- January 1977: Dohmen predicted the 1977-78 stock bear
market, which lasted 15 months. He also forecasted the roaring bull market in gold, which
peaked at $850 an ounce in 1980.
- In 1979, he was one of the handful of analysts to forecast
a then-unbelievable 21% prime rate. The rate was only 11.5% at the time.
Yet in 1980,
the prime rate reached 21.5%.
- In 1981-1982, he predicted the deep recession, the
spirited recovery and the Reagan economic boom of the mid-1980s.
- In 1983, Bert Dohmen forecasted that the Dow would reach
3400-3600 by the early 1990s. His prediction was right on target.
- In December 1986, Bert issued a "buy"
recommendation on stocks, and in an interview with Business Week, projected a target of
2700 for Dow Jones Industrials in 1987. The Dow reached Bert's 2700 target in August
1987, peaking at 2722.
- On October 19, 1987, the day of the crash, Dohmen issued a
Special Bulletin, predicting that the next day would be the low of the crash, presenting
superb bargain hunting opportunities. He advised "It's still a bull market."
- In December 1989, Bert Dohmen warned in a Special Bulletin
to sell. Two weeks later, the Dow started a 300 point plunge.
- In January 1990, Bert said, "Time to sell
Japan." The best-known fund, GT Japan Growth, lost 48.2% in the following 3 years.
Then, in December of 1992, Bert recommended buying back into Japan funds, and the GT fund
has gained 49.6% since that "buy" signal.
- In May 1990, Dohmen announced that a recession had
started. A year later the National Institute for Economic Research confirmed that the
recession began in June 1990, just as he had pinpointed. None of the well-known
forecasters recognized it.
- In July 1990, Bert pinpointed the market top at 3000 and
gave a total "sell" signal on stocks FIVE days before the Dow began a 650-point
decline.
- In November 1990, he issued a "buy" signal on
biotech funds. Oppenheimer Global Biotech then proceeded to explode upwards,
gaining
179.3% from his "buy" signal to his "sell" signal in January of 1992.
- In January 1992, he issued a "sell" signal on
all Health/Biotechnology funds on the exact day of the top in this sector. Over the
next five months, this sector declined 40%. In May 1992, Bert said, "Regional bank
mutual funds are the next hot area." Fidelity's Select Fund has since gained 52.5%.
- In March 1993, Bert recommended precious metals, such as
Lexington Strategic Investments Fund. The fund is up 267% in 18 months.
- In September 1993, Dohmen advised "exiting all U.S.
income funds now." In the ensuing 12 months, bond funds lost 23.8%,
the worst 12
month performance in U.S. bond history.
- At the beginning of February 1994, Bert Dohmen recommended
exiting the U.S. equity market. By late September, 75% of all stocks on the NYSE had
declined 20% or more from their peaks.
- Hong Kong and China investments were hyped by Wall Street
in 1993. In January, 1994, Bert gave a sell signal on the emerging markets, including Hong
Kong and China. In early February, the mainland Chinese markets crashed 80% to 90%.
Bert's clients were safe once again.
- The derivative bubble burst in 1994 when the Federal
Reserve tightened. Orange County filed bankruptcy. Clients of the major derivative player,
Bankers Trust, sued the bank for multi-million dollar losses. Bert Dohmen had warned about
the derivative bubble in late 1993.
- On November 11, 1994, Bert issued a sell signal on Mexico
and Latin America. He had stayed out of those markets in 1994, but almost every Wall
Street analyst had these markets on their buy list. Bert felt compelled to issue a
strong sell. Several weeks later, Mexico crashed into a depression, dragging many Latin
American markets with it. Mutual Funds investing in those areas declined 50% - 60%. Bert
Dohmen's clients were safe.
- In the summer of 1995, Bert Dohmen warned to get out of
high technology stocks by the end of August. His analysis: Windows 95, the new program of
Microsoft, had been hyped to the extreme. Computer manufacturers had double and triple
ordered components, causing shortages. Everyone expected a huge influx of PC orders, in
order to run the new Windows version.
But Bert
Dohmen stated that businesses would not convert quickly, as their current software was
running nicely, on their current equipment. Therefore Windows 95 sales would be
disappointing, and the anticipated PC boom would not occur. As we know now, he was right
on target.
In the first week of September, the high tech boom
fizzled, and many stocks lost 50%-70% over the next several months.
- The January, 1996 Outlook issue, Bert Dohmen wrote:
"...1996 will bring some exceptional opportunities for investors. There will be some
sharp, scary corrections, but they will be brief. Each one will present a new buying
opportunity".
At that time, many Wall Street
analysts were bearish, saying that a good year like 1995 could not be followed by another
good year. They were wrong.
- On July 5, 1996, the market had an abrupt decline. Bert
Dohmen goes by the theory that when the market does the opposite to what the indicators
suggest, its time to pay attention. The next market date, Bert Dohmen recommended to his
SMARTE
TRADER subscribers to sell short a list of high technology stocks he gave them.
Over the next three weeks, as Wall Street was taken by surprise, and the technology and
small company stocks plunged, SMARTE TRADER subscribers actually profited
handsomely.
- In late July, a high profile market analyst was featured
on national television with a sharp change in her previously bullish forecast. She
predicted that the market would decline another 20%-25%. Bert Dohmen took that as a signal
for the bottom of the correction, and together with his other indicators, confirmed that a
bottom was in place. Short positions were closed out, and new purchases were recommended.
As we know now, the bottom presented a perfect buying opportunity, as the Dow Jones
Industrials soared over 1,300 points going into the end of 1996.
CONCLUSION
This is a sampling of Bert Dohmen's forecast over
the past 20 years. His forecasts usually go against the crowds, but their accuracy is
proven fact. But Bert Dohmen is the first one to state that anyone that expects a perfect
forecasting record is looking for the impossible.
The mark of a good analyst and advisor is
that when he is wrong, he recognizes it, and through proper risk control, minimizes the
damage. The best market traders in the world, who make millions of dollars a year for
themselves, state that maybe only 20%-30% of their trades are profitable. The others are
losers, but them make money because they cut losses short. Risk control is the name of the
game to investment success.
The
Authority
You'd have to look hard to find someone
with more respect among his peers and grateful followers than Bert Dohmen.
Why is Mr. Dohmen so respected? He's the advisor
who has:
- Met with Presidents Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford and Jimmy
Carter, as well as Dr. Milton Friedman, Ambassador Vernon Walters, Presidential economic
advisors Dr. Beryl Sprinkle and Dr. Jerry Jordan.
- Been quoted for his expertise in Barron's, The Wall Street
Journal, Investor's Business Daily and scores of other publication.
- Been rated #1 Market Timer by Timer Digest.
- Outperformed a buy-and-hold approach of top no-load mutual
funds by up to 399 percentage points.
- Has been a special guest on Louis Rukeyser's "Wall
Street Week," CNN's "Moneyline," and others.
- Been described in a Dec 8, 1986 issue of Business Week as
"a pro who thinks it's time to stock up on stocks (just before an 800 point upmove in
the Dow Jones Industrials.)"
- Been one of the world's highest-paid investment advisors
(at $1,800 an hour.)
- Been praised by Wall Street Transcript as one who has
"gained an international reputation for his accurate forecasts on the economy and
major investment markets."
More importantly, he is now making his
"Dohmen Double Profit Strategy" available to all mutual fund investors. Please
read on for exciting details!
Contact our
customer service office:
Dohmen Research , Inc.
P. O. Box, 49-2433 Los Angeles, CA 90049
TEL:(310) 476-6933 FAX:(310)
440-2919
E-Mail: client@dohmencapital.com
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