The most important goal: Risk Control

The hot stock is NOT as important as avoiding the big losers!

Most individual investors believe that the road to investment riches is to catch the hot stocks. But research shows that the most important ingredient to success is to control risk. If you can prevent the big loss in one or two investments, the profits will take care of themselves.

The greatest risk is to have a stock which plunges 30%-50% at the opening one day, because of disappointing earnings, an SEC investigation, earnings restatements, etc. It takes a lot of gains in other stocks to offset such a loss.

The way to eliminate that risk is through diversification. And for us this means to buy baskets of stocks in the sectors, or geographical areas our research shows to have the best opportunities. It’s a fact that sector rotation is the most important determinant in the markets: when a specific sector grows strong, or plunges, over 90% of the stocks in that sector go with it, regardless of fundamentals for that stock.

Furthermore, studies over the years have shown that 93% of the outperformance of a performance is NOT due to stock picking, but due to proper asset allocation. And that means picking the right sectors…and avoiding the poor ones.

With these proven facts, Bert Dohmen and his team developed the “Dohmen Double-Profit Strategy.” It avoids the risk of individuals stocks by concentrating on baskets of stocks in particular sector or geographical areas. And these baskets are the top no-load mutual funds, and the newest type of investment, the ETFs (exchange traded funds). The latter resemble mutual funds, but don’t have some of the disadvantages of mutual funds. You can trade ETFs during the day like stocks, and you don’t have the potential big tax hit of mutual funds at the end of the year.

Specific, Timely "Buy - Sell" Advice

Bert Dohmen's PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS is a revolutionary subscription advisory service that provides everything you need to greatly improve your long-term investment performance. It's designed to offer convenience, time-savings, confidentiality, and profitable "Buy" and "Sell" advice using a sophisticated strategy developed by Bert Dohmen.

You see, if you can buy near the start of a strong upmove in a specific sector, and then sell anywhere near the top, you can take a big chunk of profit off of the table.

And if you then put the proceeds into a sector which is just starting to move up, and repeat the process, you can take another chunk of profit. Doesn’t that sound better then taking the long-term “hold” approach, where you see your profits fade away in the inevitable downturn? How many times did you see a nice profit in one of your investments disappear…and then turn into a loss? Probably, it’s too painful to think about.

You see, the buying is not the most important decision. Anyone can do it. But when to sell is critical. And that’s where most people, as well as many professionals, fail.    

The DOHMEN DOUBLE-PROFIT STRATEGY is designed to get you out before the profits turn into losses. It’s based on serious technical analysis, not emotions, or knee-jerk responses. As a subscriber, you will receive these very important signals, via email and the internet.

Additionally, Private Portfolios ACTION ALERTS will advise the exact percentage of your portfolio to allocate to each fund or ETF.  Imagine, you'll know exactly which mutual funds or ETF’s to purchase, in what percentages, and precisely when to buy or sell. All you have to do is execute the trades through your discount broker. It's that simple!

And since you'll have a portfolio of mutual funds and ETFs, you'll get the added safety of diversification.

All Sectors Don’t Always Behave Alike 

Unlike many timing services, and even the rating services, Bert Dohmen’s PRIVATE PORTFOIOS doesn’t use a major index, such as the Dow, to time buy and sell decisions.  That’s much too simplistic.  It’s even dangerous!  For example, the NASDAQ Composite declined over 50% from the March 2000 high to late November 2000.  During the same time, the Dow gained about 20%.

Instead of timing a single index, and pretending that all stocks will act the same,  Bert Dohmen’s PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS times the major sectors of the mutual funds market.  These sectors include: Aggressive, Growth, Health, Biotech, Technology, International Equity, European Equity, Pacific Equity, Global Fixed-Income, U.S. Government Bond, Precious Metals, Real Estate, Value Funds, Small Cap Funds, and many others. And with the new ETF vehicles, you can even get into the very interesting markets, such as currencies, precious metals, and ETFs which rise in price as the sector, or index, plunges. 

Many sectors act independently of one another.  For example, while the Aggressive sector may be headed downward, the Real Estate sector may be going up.  Or if the Technology sector is plunging, the Biotech may be rising.  It’s important to recognize that not all sectors head in the same direction at the same time. The big money flows usually go from sector to sector. When one sector gets overvalued, the money flows to an undervalued sector. And that’s how the big money outfits make billions of dollars in profits.

When our analysis for a sector moves to the “All Clear” area, it’s okay to buy funds in that sector.  When our indicators move into the “Avoid” area, we recommend selling any funds in that category, placing that money into an area that’s just going onto a buy signal. Or in a major bear market, or a choppy, dangerous environment, we won’t hesitate to use money market funds for awhile.

Buying low and selling high, and re-employing the profits in new emerging areas, enables our money to do twice the work.  That’s why we call it the  “Dohmen Double Profit Strategy”.

          Take the Worry out of your Investing with Private Portfolios

Bert Dohmen's PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS is designed to make you money over the long-term, and to protect your assets during painful bear markets. During the last big bear market of 2000 to 2002, the NASDAQ COMPOSITE index lost 80% of its value. Many of the most popular mutual funds lost 75% and even over 90% of their value.

Yes, that’s hard to believe now, but it happened. It proves that selling, not the “buy and hold forever approach”, is an essential part of investing.

Private Portfolios takes the worry out of investing and lets you enjoy the pursuit of profits. You see, a mutual fund manager must stay invested. But when Bert Dohmen's signals say "sell," you'll get out.

There are huge profit opportunities ahead but also painful traps. You can maximize your profit opportunities for a very low monthly fee. No other service can compare to Bert Dohmen's PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS. Don’t let anyone that market or sector timing are not important or can’t be done.  

Avoiding the big Declines

Look at this example of a major mutual fund, using outside managers who took the old, “long term hold” approach. In 2001 Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund lost 31.7%. The management firm hired to manage the fund had made a major bet on one stock, Cisco, right at the top, just to see it lose 65% of its value in 2001.

So, the fund company, Vanguard, changed management firms for this fund. The new money management firm, one of the biggest, lost another 36% for the fund in 2002.

This shows that the traditional fundamental analysis, and the “hold for the long-term” so often preached, are prescriptions for financial ruin.

Here is an example of how proper timing can produce huge changes in performance.  

I will refer to an example given by economist Gary Shilling, who writes an interesting column in Forbes magazine. Gary researched the 45-year period form January 1946 to June 1991, certainly a long time period. During this time, the Dow Industrials gained at an 11.4% annual rate, compounded quarterly, including dividend reinvestments. In 45.5 years, $1,000 would have turned into $114,5000. That’s a satisfactory gain.

However, the investor who would have been out of stocks and in T-bills in the 50 strongest months, would have seen his compounded annual return drop to 4.2%.

But what about being out of the market in the 50 weakest months? Instead of an 11.4% annual return under the “buy-and-hold” approach, the return would have jumped to a huge 19.9%. In other words, your $1,000 would have grown to over $3 million in 45 years, instead of $114,500.

Suddenly, the “buy-and-hold” approach no longer seems that great. Of course, nothing guarantees that you will catch each and every decline just in time. However, if you can find a technique to often get you out before major plunges, you can dramatically enhance your return.

Remember, a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to get back to even. Therefore, avoiding the worst months is more important than catching the best ones.

And that’s why sector timing is so important to your investment success.

Benefit from much lower Costs

          Let us emphasize, we do not manage money.

In a managed account program, you pay for many things you don't need. For example,  money managers and funds need attorneys to make sure that all the investment regulations are complied with.  He needs CPAs for his audits. A money manager needs a staff of people to reconcile the daily transaction slips, to speak with clients, to handle calls of prospects... and, of course, he needs traders to place the orders and reconcile them at the end of the day.

YOU pay those expenses, with your management fees. Believe it or not, these expenses are greater than those of investment research!

With Bert Dohmen's PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS, we provide you with the signals needed for success. But you don't pay for someone's staff of attorneys and CPAs. All you do is place your own order with your own broker ... saving you thousands of dollars per year!

Now you can combine these low costs with zero or low transaction fees offered by discount brokers like Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Ameritrade, Scottrade, and others. When we started our business three decades ago, such low costs were just a dream.

Private Portfolios also eliminates the need to give your personal financial statements to strangers where they may end up in the hands of snoopy individuals you don't know.

And most important, you stay in full control of your own money and life savings.

Bert Dohmen's PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS is a trailblazer. It's the ultimate solution for the individual investor who wants exact and specific professional advice on what to buy and sell, and when to do it. Together with ETF'S, it's an unbeatable combination. Why do anything else? 

Some Examples of Bert’s Contrarian Forecasts

Over the years, it would be hard to find someone with a better forecasting record, especially at times when it required a totally contrarian view.

In early 1990 Bert Dohmen predicted a market crash in Japan and a 10 year-long, deep recession. He headlined a story, “The End of Gold-Wrapped Sushi”.  It was a totally contrarian forecast. The Nikkei index in Tokyo had just gone over 39,000. In the U.S. politicians expressed their concern about the Japanese buying all the best U.S. real estate and that the Japanese banks were taking over the international banking system.  

Well, as it turned out, the recession in Japan lasted longer than 10 years. The stock market plunged more than 70%. And it took the economy about 15 years to get out of the severe real estate depression. 

In 1997 investment analysts around the world were wildly optimistic about Hong Kong’s economic future, after China took over.  But after a visit, Bert predicted a