(The following is an opinion, offered free of charge, and not part of what the subscriber pays for. This is NOT required reading.)

WHAT IS ‘FAIR DISTRIBUTION?”

 

Politics is a dirty game. The American people are getting tired of so much energy in Washington devoted to word games attacking the incumbent administration. Now they go back to whether the Administration knew about weapons of mass destruction not being in Iraq. Yet, members of the opposition party are on the Intelligence Committee of Congress, which had the same info as the President. They voted for the war.

 

At last President Bush has started selling his ideas to the American public. His speech on Dec. 12 was terrific in explaining the importance of what we do in Iraq. The terrorists we kill there are terrorists who won’t come here to kill us.

 

On the economic side, which interests us more as investors, we hear that in spite of the strong economy, there is no “fair distribution.” In other words, the gap between the rich and the poor is widening. I remember a 1000 page book published over 40 years ago, making the same case. The fact is that the only time this gap narrows is during depressions. In good times, those who work hard and smart take advantage of the opportunities.

 

Those who continue to be lazy, don’t do anything to enhance their skills, do not seek continuing education or self-improvement, and will not participate in the prosperity. Why should this be the fault of the President of the country?

 

Anyone who is an employer knows that most job applicants have no qualifications whatsoever for the job offered. For example, you advertise for an Admin Assistant. You would expect them to at least know MS Word, for writing letters and reports. But many of the applicants either don’t know word processing, or type 30 words or less. They won’t put that on the application; otherwise they would never get the interview. When you ask why they don’t know such a basic skill, you often get the answer: “But I am a fast learner.” My answer often is, ‘then why haven’t you learned this already by now.’

 

Out of 100 resumes received, the average business throws out 90 without an interview. Yes, fewer than 10% pass the resume test. Out of those 10% or so, maybe one is qualified to be hired. And then, many of them get fired in the first three months because they are lazy or incompetent.

 

Nationally, I have read that maybe 30%-40% of the time of the average office employee is spent on the internet for personal things, such as playing video games, personal emails, etc. I have personally had that experience with several MBA’s we hired…and then fired.

 

If you own a house, you have probably had the experience, where you offer someone to do 2-3 hours of work for $100. Then, they never even show up because it’s not enough.

 

Let’s put the blame where it belongs: on the individual.

 

If you read Business Week or other business publications, you know that the number of 9th grade students who eventually graduate from college is dropping alarmingly. The U.S. is being flooded with immigrants, illegal and legal. Amongst Latinos, fewer than 10% of high school graduates go to college. This obviously widens the income gap. But most of these people are happy with their lives. We shouldn’t think that only a college degree leads to happiness.

 

According to this week’s Barrons, China graduated 500,000 engineers last year, while India graduated 200,000. In the U.S. we graduated only 70,000!

 

Nearly half of all U.S. doctorates awarded in engineering and computer science in 2004 were to students from India, China, and the former Soviet Union. Barrons quoted Intel chairman Craig Barrett that we “should staple a green card” to foreign students’ diplomas and “let them stay here.”

 

We should not expect the occupant of the White House, no matter who he is, to be responsible for the weather, income distribution, economic problems around the world, a declining or rising dollar, etc. Even the experts can’t agree on what causes any of these trends, much less how to reverse them, or whether they even should be reversed. What ever happened to every person having responsibility for him/herself?

Another web scam! Here is what the FBI has to say about it:

“We're sorry to report yet another wave of virus-laden e-mails sent out with false FBI addresses. This particular e-mail claims the FBI has been monitoring your Internet use...says you've accessed so-called illegal websites...and demands you answer questions—all you have to do is open an attachment, maliciously laced with a variant of the w32/sober virus.”

Don't do it! In fact, don't EVER respond to unsolicited poison pills like these. The FBI does not conduct business this way.

Who are the e-mails from? To date, they're being sent out with email addresses of mail@fbi.gov, post@fbi.gov and admin@fbi.gov.

What does the message say? Something like:

Dear Sir/Madam,

We have logged your IP-address on more than 30 illegal Websites.

Important: Please answer our questions! The list of questions are attached.

Yours faithfully,
Steven Allison
Federal Bureau of Investigation-FBI-

Editor’s comments: Beware of any such emails. Hope this helps.

 

TAX REFORM

 

Excerpts from a Bloomberg column by Caroline Baum:

The (tax) code should not favor sophisticated individuals and corporations -- whoever has the best tax accountants, wins -- over ordinary, unsophisticated taxpayers.

And it shouldn't be tampered with every year in a congressional free-for-all, with members handing out tax breaks to favored constituencies.

When one considers that Congress will water down any proposal to an unrecognizable form in order to preserve its power, then the panel's starting point isn't nearly radical enough.

Coming Up Short

``I can sum it up in one word: tinkering,'' said Tom Wright, executive director of FairTax.org, a grassroots organization that advocates a national sales tax and repeal of the income tax.

The two proposals represent ``the same old kind of legislation, with no inherent immunity to special interests or lobbyists,'' he said. ``They have done nothing to get the taxman out of our lives.''   (cabaum@bloomberg.net)

Tempe Loses Bid to Take Property

 

by Benjamin Barr

November 30, 2005

 

The Arizona Supreme Court yesterday rejected Tempe’s request for a special action in Tempe v. Valentine.  At issue was whether Tempe’s proposal to condemn private property to make way for a developer to erect a shopping mall met the constitutional definition of “public use.”  At the trial court, Tempe lost; prompting the city to file its special action petition.  

 

The Arizona Constitution contains explicit protection for property owners, prohibiting the taking of private property for private use in most instances.  Historically, “public use” has been interpreted to include such things as sewers and roads.

 

In the 2003 case Bailey v. Myers, an appellate court developed a test to determine when a project meets the proper definition of “public use”.  According to the court, the public benefits of a project must “substantially predominate” over private benefits.  The test is a good first step to restoring the constitutional meaning of public use. Under this standard, a project that primarily benefits one private individual or group of individuals rather than the public as a whole will be found unconstitutional.

 

Our comment: congratulations to the court for standing up for Constitutional rights.

 

From the WSJ: HEDGE FUND FRAUD (11-30-05)

We are hearing more and more about hedge fund frauds, where the principal of the fund has stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from the funds. Here is what the the Wall Street Journal wrote about one such case recently:

“… late last month, Mr. Conway's partner, Aaron Behle, wrote to fellow investors that Mr. Conway, an author of number of books and newsletters about investing, confessed to Mr. Behle that he had created "fictitious brokerage statements, fictitious accounting reports, fictitious audit reports, a fictitious auditor, and fund performance information," according to Mr. Behle's letter.

The SEC complaint, filed in federal court in Massachusetts, alleges that Mr. Conway "defrauded his clients by not disclosing the millions of losses" that the hedge fund incurred, and misled them about the amount of assets in the fund and its trading strategy. The complaint alleges that the fund now only holds $14 million, rather than the $43 million that investors were told was in the investment pool.

Be careful when investing with any private investment pool. As Will Rogers said years ago: “I am not so concerned about the return ON my money, as I am concerned about the return OF my money.”

By the way, we are now preparing a new product for our subscribers, which gives you the benefits of a hedge fund, without sending your money away to anyone. And it’s a lot cheaper. (Contact us if you have any interest.)

 

Ronald Reagan said:

 

“Here's my strategy on the Cold War: We win, they lose."

and another wisdom from President Reagan:

 

"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help you."

 

Graffiti:

 

In Washington:

 

If “pro” is opposite of “con”, then what is the opposite of “progress”?

 

Answer:  Congress!

 

WHAT OTHERS WRITE:

 

Here is what a chaplain of the U.S. Marines said recently:

 

It is the soldier, not the reporter,

Who has given us the freedom of the press.

It is the soldier, not the poet,

Who has given us the freedom of speech.

It is the soldier, not the campus organizer,

Who has given us the freedom to demonstrate.

It is the soldier,

Who salutes the flag,

And whose coffin is draped by the flag,

Who allows the protester to burn the flag.

 

--The Rev. Denis Edward O'Brien, USMC

 

MUSLIM TERRORISM

 

The country of Jordan has now been targeted by Islam terrorism. Interestingly, this time the people and government acted with courage and showed their outrage in the streets. Al Qaeda, not the U.S., was the target of the demonstrations.

 

But in France the demonstrators are Muslims. Burning thousands of cars in the streets of 300 or more cities is their idea of a religious war.

 

Just now, the Queen of England has been declared “an enemy of Islam” by Al Qaeda.”

 

Americans wonder why leaders of Muslim and Arab countries have never shown public outrage about this perversion of the Islam religion. Why don’t those who claim that Islam is a “religion of peace” declare these terrorists as outlaws and defilers of Islam for their acts against innocent people?

 

And in the U.S. Congress, all those Democrats who had originally declared that “without doubt” Sadam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, now are conducting a witch-hunt for political purposes against President Bush and the Republicans. While our brave soldiers are giving their lives in the trenches every day, some of these Democratic leaders are comparing American troupes to “the Nazis” or the “Nol Pot” who killed millions of his own people. What a disgrace!

 

I don’t think the American people will like this political strategy of ‘revisionism.” I think the Dems are once again underestimating the intelligence of the people, just as John Kerry did. Deceptive talking points and twisting of the facts on national TV didn’t do it in the last campaign. I think it will fail again.

 

People don’t like Monday morning quarterbacks. They respect someone willing to make courageous decisions in a time of need. The country of Sudan offered Clinton to arrest Osama bin Laden and turn him over to the U.S. Clinton expressed no interest. That’s why Osama was able to blow up the World Trade Center. Clinton was too busy with an intern to make an important decision. Over 3000 civilians in that building paid for this with their lives.

 

The above is not meant as a political statement. It’s a statement from an immigrant who is proud to be an American, who has lived under tyranny and also American democracy, and values the difference.

 

EXTREMISM, RIGHT OR LEFT, DESTROYS ECONOMIES

Terrorism will be reduced to the level of a ‘nuisance’ under Kerry. I have never seen terrorism being a nuisance. It always involves killing of many innocent civilians, women and children. He criticizes Bush for not gathering a world-wide coalition similar to what his father did in the first Gulf war. Yet Kerry voted AGAINST the first Gulf War, inspite of the world-wide coalition and the U.N approval of the military action, while he defended Saddam.

Some call Kerry the worst ultra-liberal since McGovern and Carter. The latter virtually destroyed our economy, creating the highest inflation rate, and the highest interest rates in 100 years. Such extremists always leave economies in shambles, no matter where in the world they are. And that is what’s important for investors and business people.

Mr. K just said that the Federal government should go after companies which hire illegal aliens. That’s naïve. California’s economy would come to a standstill. On construction sites, about 95% of the workers are foreign. And the majority are illegal. Who would take their place?

Mr. K goes around saying that Medicare costs will rise a hefty 17% early next year, blaming Bush. What he doesn’t say is that this law was signed by President Clinton, after Mr. K voted for it.

I am sorry if a few of our democratic friends don’t approve of my comments in this area. The last time we even had a couple of cancellations. I never understand that mindset. It certainly doesn’t hurt me financially.  I have been reading Business Week for over 20 years and certainly disagree with some of the very liberal columnists in that magazine. But I don’t cancel. I just don’t read those parts, although I do pay for them.

I am neither Republican nor Democrat. I think the two party system stinks. They have the parties, and we get the bills. Neither allow other candidates to participate in the pre-election process. They fight tooth and nail, with armies of lawyers, to keep third party candidates off of the ballots.

That’s not the democratic process. I would like to hear debates with some of the other candidates giving their views and “plans.” It might be enlightening for the voters. What are the two parties afraid of? Party crashers?

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MASS MURDER IN RUSSIA

Moslem terrorists held over 1000 hostages captive in a school gym in Russia for several days. The outcome: over 300, mostly children, dead.

The U.S. media calls these terrorists “rebels, insurgents,” etc. The same goes for the killers in Iraq. Why doesn’t anyone dare call them what they are: Moslem fanatics, terrorists and mass-murderers?

Who can mass murder hundred’s of children? Who can shoot them in the back? And in Iraq, what kind of people can cut the heads off of living human beings with a knife?

You can’t negotiate with people like this. You can’t bargain and ask “can’t we all just get along?”  There is only one way to deal with these lunatics.

Obviously, no one likes conflict or war. No one liked World War II either, but it had to be done. They only mistake was trying to appease Hitler before the war, in the hope that it wouldn’t come to a war. Remember Britain’s Foreign Minister Chamberlain who thought he could talk Hitler into peace?

Instead of negotiating, they should have tried to remove this mentally deranged Austrian, Hitler. It would have saved many millions of lives.

Removing Saddam Hussein has cost over 1000 lives of U.S. soldiers. That of course is very sad. But it may have saved hundreds of thousands. (It’s fewer than are killed on our highways in a week.) Kerry now says it was the “wrong war at the wrong time.” Yet he voted for it.

It takes an incredible amount of courage to do something which is not popular with a large segment of the population, or even the world. But that’s what leadership is all about. The U.S. tried very hard to get the European nations to stop the massacres in Bosnia. They wouldn’t. Finally, President Clinton and the U. S. Congress decided to do it. They saved thousands of lives.

The war on terror can only be won if the terrorists and mass-murderers know they don’t have a chance to survive over the long term. The list of countries which have lately been victims of these Moslem terrorists grows constantly. Any weakness in the determination to fight these monsters only makes them stronger.

Make no mistake: we are in the midst of a world-wide religious war. And we better act accordingly.

Watching the last debate, I formulated my own plans. “I have a plan” to make each one of our subscribers multi-millionaires, I just can’t tell you by when...and I can’t reveal the details. I have another plan which will make each one of our trades a winner. I have a plan to end poverty world-wide, a plan to ban natural disasters, and a plan to reduce terrorism to a ‘nuisance.’

All those plans are currently in a “lockbox”, so I can’t disclose them. And if you believe all that, I know who will get your vote.

PFIZER

CNBC today had the most amazing interview: the Director of Marketing of Pfizer, Mr. Rost. He is in favor of allowing the re-importation of drugs from Canada and other countries, totally opposite to the strongly voiced position of the CEO of Pfizer. Mr. Rost says that there is no evidence that such drugs are ‘unsafe,’ something which seems logical to us. After all, do we think that Canadians are idiots and take counterfeit drugs?

Mr. Rost says that what is much more harmful is the fact that today’s high drug prices prevent many people from using drugs they need. Lower prices would help all these ill people…We congratulate Mr. Rost for his courage. We would guess that his days at Pfizer are numbered. 

IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR

(from an article by John Mauldin, www.frontline.com)

The Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 went to a psychologist, Dr. Daniel Kahneman, who helped pioneer the field of behavioral finance. If I can crudely summarize his brilliant work, he basically shows that investors are irrational. But what gets him a Nobel is he shows that we are predictably irrational. We continue to make the same mistakes over and over. One of the biggest is our common inability to take a loss. He goes into long and magnificent explanations of why this is, but the bottom line is that taking a loss is so painful, we simply avoid it.

While technical indicators cannot be rigorously programmed to yield an automatic, always winning or low loss, don't-think-about-it trading system, they do provide some useful insight. Volume, direction, momentum, stochastic, and so on are reflective of market psychology. With a great deal of time and effort, astute traders can use this data to determine what Mark Finn calls the "gist" of the market.

My comments: for over three decades I have preached that taking a loss is the most important discipline for anyone who wants to be a successful investor. It allows you to put dead capital into something which can be much more productive. Furthermore, it gives psychological relief, so that your mind can once again take a positive attitude.

 

ECONOMIC ILLITERACY

Watching the Congressional hearing with Dr. Greenspan, I often cringe when I hear the questions from members of Congress. Obviously there is a great deficiency in economic education in this country. And these are the people who make economic policy!

They expect the head of the Federal Reserve to resolve every problem in the world, including finding a job for someone who just lost his, or preventing the demise of a company which lacked smart management. Hey guys, that’s life. It’s ‘Survival of the fittest.'

In the recent hearing, one member called Dr. G “His Excellency.”  He said that the tax cuts would produce a budget deficiency of over 2 trillion dollars OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS, and that this money “is removed from the economy.”  I couldn’t believe it! Tax cuts allow taxpayers to keep more of the money they earn. How is this ‘removed’ from the economy?

The Bush tax cuts are equal to about 1% of total governmental spending. How can these be responsible for all the disasters the opposition party describes?

I often hear such total economic ignorance from the representative of Massachusetts. Maybe we should send an economic task force to that state in order to educate their “public servants” first, and then educate their teachers. Obviously, there is something drastically lacking. Or is it something in the water?

Congress could save the country over $150 billion per year by relieving the taxpayer from the onerous burden of the tax return. That’s the amount of money American’s spend on their tax prepares and time to gather all the information. It does NOT include any money paid in taxes. Congress loves to put everything in terms of 10 years. Well, this would save the country $1.5 TRILLION. That’s a bunch.

NASDAQ 30,000, and DOW 41,000 IN FOUR YEARS?

Harry Dent, who wrote a best selling book on demographics, has some startling forecasts for the stock market, based on the number of people reaching their biggest savings or investment years. Our friend, John Mauldin, had some great excerpts from Mr. Dent’s writings. Here they are:

"By 2008," he breathlessly avers, "I see the Dow headed to a high of 35,000 to 41,000. Sound outrageous? Perhaps it does, but it is based on a standard projection using the Dow's rate of growth that began in late 1982.

"Since 1982, we have enjoyed nearly twenty years of continual prosperity that has been marred by only a few brief corrections. The Dow and the S&P 500 have increased at an average annual rate of 17%. When shown on a ratio graph instead of numerical graph like the chart below, this rate of growth appears as a channel that clearly projects a peak of around 41,000 by late 2008. This is even higher than the projected high of 35,000 that I forecast in my 1998 book The Roaring 2000s.

"And, of course, I see the NASDAQ growing at an even faster rate than the Dow and the S&P. Based on the NASDAQ channel of growth we should see it hit 30,000 plus by 2008."

John Mauldin comments:  “A mere 20 times on your money in the NASDAQ in just 4 years. P/E ratios somewhere in the range of 1,000. How could we miss this opportunity? Normally, you would consign this type of thinking to the delusional category rather than merely single derivative. However, Dent wrote a quite cogent and major best-seller (The Roaring 2000s). He is taken seriously in many circles. But investment circles should not be one of them.“

My comments: If that forecast comes true, everyone has a wonderful opportunity to become immensely rich over the next four years. The Federal Budget deficit will turn into a huge surplus because of the capital gains taxes paid. Money will come from the moon to invest in our markets. We will all be driving Rolls Royce’s, Mercedes,  Ferraris, etc. Oil prices will go to $80 per bbl, but who cares.

Of course, the great prosperity here will produce an incredible Trade Deficit, as U.S. consumers buy every new toy produced in countries such as Japan, Korea, and China. The dollars piling up overseas will be reinvested in the U.S., which produces a huge Current Account Deficit, which gives economists another opportunity to ring the alarm bells, and ask: “ what will happen when all the foreigners come at the same time, withdrawing their money?.” 

The prosperity will cause the Fed to hike interest rates to double-digit levels, fearing potential inflation. This will collapse the housing boom, cause mortgage lenders to go bankrupt, and overnight we will be in a depression.

You see, there is a downside to everything. Maybe we should be happy with a Dow of 12,000 in 4 years.


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