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(The following is an
opinion, offered free of charge, and not part of what the subscriber pays
for. This is NOT required reading.)
WHAT IS ‘FAIR
DISTRIBUTION?”
Politics is a dirty game. The American
people are getting tired of so much energy in Washington
devoted to word games attacking the incumbent administration.
Now they go back to whether the Administration knew about
weapons of mass destruction not being in Iraq. Yet, members
of the opposition party are on the Intelligence Committee of
Congress, which had the same info as the President. They
voted for the war.
At last President Bush has started
selling his ideas to the American public. His speech on Dec.
12 was terrific in explaining the importance of what we do in
Iraq. The terrorists we kill there are terrorists who won’t
come here to kill us.
On the economic side, which interests us
more as investors, we hear that in spite of the strong
economy, there is no “fair distribution.” In other words, the
gap between the rich and the poor is widening. I remember a
1000 page book published over 40 years ago, making the same
case. The fact is that the only time this gap narrows is
during depressions. In good times, those who work hard and
smart take advantage of the opportunities.
Those who continue to be lazy, don’t do
anything to enhance their skills, do not seek continuing
education or self-improvement, and will not participate in
the prosperity. Why should this be the fault of the President
of the country?
Anyone who is an employer knows that
most job applicants have no qualifications whatsoever for the
job offered. For example, you advertise for an Admin
Assistant. You would expect them to at least know MS Word,
for writing letters and reports. But many of the applicants
either don’t know word processing, or type 30 words or less.
They won’t put that on the application; otherwise they would
never get the interview. When you ask why they don’t know
such a basic skill, you often get the answer: “But I am a
fast learner.” My answer often is, ‘then why haven’t you
learned this already by now.’
Out of 100 resumes received, the average
business throws out 90 without an interview. Yes, fewer than
10% pass the resume test. Out of those 10% or so, maybe one
is qualified to be hired. And then, many of them get fired in
the first three months because they are lazy or incompetent.
Nationally, I have read that maybe
30%-40% of the time of the average office employee is spent
on the internet for personal things, such as playing video
games, personal emails, etc. I have personally had that
experience with several MBA’s we hired…and then fired.
If you own a house, you have probably
had the experience, where you offer someone to do 2-3 hours
of work for $100. Then, they never even show up because it’s
not enough.
Let’s put the blame where it belongs: on
the individual.
If you read Business Week or other
business publications, you know that the number of 9th
grade students who eventually graduate from college is
dropping alarmingly. The U.S. is being flooded with
immigrants, illegal and legal. Amongst Latinos, fewer than
10% of high school graduates go to college. This obviously
widens the income gap. But most of these people are happy
with their lives. We shouldn’t think that only a college
degree leads to happiness.
According to this week’s Barrons, China
graduated 500,000 engineers last year, while India graduated
200,000. In the U.S. we graduated only 70,000!
Nearly half of all U.S.
doctorates awarded in engineering and computer science in
2004 were to students from India, China, and the former
Soviet Union. Barrons quoted Intel chairman Craig Barrett
that we “should staple a green card” to foreign students’
diplomas and “let them stay here.”
We should not expect the occupant of the
White House, no matter who he is, to be responsible for the
weather, income distribution, economic problems around the
world, a declining or rising dollar, etc. Even the experts
can’t agree on what causes any of these trends, much less how
to reverse them, or whether they even should be reversed.
What ever happened to every person having responsibility for
him/herself?
Another web scam! Here is what the FBI
has to say about it:
“We're
sorry to report yet another wave of virus-laden e-mails sent
out with false FBI addresses. This particular e-mail claims
the FBI has been monitoring your Internet use...says you've
accessed so-called illegal websites...and demands you answer
questions—all you have to do is open an attachment,
maliciously laced with a variant of the w32/sober virus.”
Don't
do it! In fact, don't
EVER respond to unsolicited poison pills like these. The FBI
does not conduct business this way.
Who are
the e-mails from? To
date, they're being sent out with email addresses of mail@fbi.gov,
post@fbi.gov and admin@fbi.gov.
What
does the message say?
Something like:
Dear
Sir/Madam,
We have
logged your IP-address on more than 30 illegal Websites.
Important: Please answer our questions! The list of questions
are attached.
Yours
faithfully,
Steven Allison
Federal Bureau of Investigation-FBI-
Editor’s comments: Beware
of any such emails. Hope this helps.
TAX REFORM
Excerpts from a Bloomberg column by
Caroline Baum:
The (tax)
code should not favor sophisticated individuals and
corporations -- whoever has the best tax accountants, wins --
over ordinary, unsophisticated taxpayers.
And it
shouldn't be tampered with every year in a congressional
free-for-all, with members handing out tax breaks to favored
constituencies.
When one
considers that Congress will water down any proposal to an
unrecognizable form in order to preserve its power, then the
panel's starting point isn't nearly radical enough.
Coming Up
Short
``I can
sum it up in one word: tinkering,'' said Tom Wright,
executive director of FairTax.org, a grassroots organization
that advocates a national sales tax and repeal of the income
tax.
The two
proposals represent ``the same old kind of legislation, with
no inherent immunity to special interests or lobbyists,'' he
said. ``They have done nothing to get the taxman out of our
lives.'' (cabaum@bloomberg.net)
Tempe Loses Bid to Take
Property
by
Benjamin Barr
November 30, 2005
The
Arizona Supreme Court yesterday rejected Tempe’s request for
a special action in
Tempe v. Valentine.
At issue was whether Tempe’s proposal to condemn private
property to make way for a developer to erect a shopping mall
met the constitutional definition of “public use.” At the
trial court, Tempe lost; prompting the city to file its
special action petition.
The
Arizona Constitution contains explicit protection for
property owners, prohibiting the taking of private property
for private use in most instances. Historically, “public
use” has been interpreted to include such things as sewers
and roads.
In
the 2003 case
Bailey v. Myers,
an appellate court developed a test to determine when a
project meets the proper definition of “public use”.
According to the court, the public benefits of a project
must “substantially predominate” over private benefits. The
test is a good first step to restoring the constitutional
meaning of public use. Under this standard, a project that
primarily benefits one private individual or group of
individuals rather than the public as a whole will be found
unconstitutional.
Our
comment: congratulations to the court for standing up for
Constitutional rights.
From the WSJ: HEDGE FUND
FRAUD (11-30-05)
We are hearing more and more about hedge
fund frauds, where the principal of the fund has stolen
hundreds of millions of dollars from the funds. Here is what
the the Wall Street Journal wrote about one such case
recently:
“… late last month, Mr. Conway's
partner, Aaron Behle, wrote to fellow investors that Mr.
Conway, an author of number of books and newsletters about
investing, confessed to Mr. Behle that he had created
"fictitious brokerage statements, fictitious accounting
reports, fictitious audit reports, a fictitious auditor, and
fund performance information," according to Mr. Behle's
letter.
The SEC complaint, filed in federal
court in Massachusetts, alleges that Mr. Conway "defrauded
his clients by not disclosing the millions of losses" that
the hedge fund incurred, and misled them about the amount of
assets in the fund and its trading strategy. The complaint
alleges that the fund now only holds $14 million, rather than
the $43 million that investors were told was in the
investment pool.
Be careful when investing with any
private investment pool. As Will Rogers said years ago: “I am
not so concerned about the return ON my money, as I am
concerned about the return OF my money.”
By the way, we are now preparing a new
product for our subscribers, which gives you the benefits of
a hedge fund, without sending your money away to anyone. And
it’s a lot cheaper. (Contact us if you have any interest.)
Ronald Reagan said:
“Here's my strategy on the Cold War: We
win, they lose."
and another wisdom from President Reagan:
"The
most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from
the government and I'm here to help you."
Graffiti:
In
Washington:
If “pro” is opposite of “con”, then what
is the opposite of “progress”?
Answer: Congress!
WHAT OTHERS
WRITE:
Here is what a chaplain of the U.S.
Marines said recently:
It is
the soldier, not the reporter,
Who
has given us the freedom of the press.
It is
the soldier, not the poet,
Who
has given us the freedom of speech.
It is
the soldier, not the campus organizer,
Who
has given us the freedom to demonstrate.
It is
the soldier,
Who
salutes the flag,
And
whose coffin is draped by the flag,
Who
allows the protester to burn the flag.
--The Rev. Denis Edward O'Brien, USMC
MUSLIM
TERRORISM
The country of Jordan has now been
targeted by Islam terrorism. Interestingly, this time the
people and government acted with courage and showed their
outrage in the streets. Al Qaeda, not the U.S., was the
target of the demonstrations.
But in France the demonstrators are
Muslims. Burning thousands of cars in the streets of 300 or
more cities is their idea of a religious war.
Just now, the Queen of England has been
declared “an enemy of Islam” by Al Qaeda.”
Americans wonder why leaders of Muslim
and Arab countries have never shown public outrage about this
perversion of the Islam religion. Why don’t those who claim
that Islam is a “religion of peace” declare these terrorists
as outlaws and defilers of Islam for their acts against
innocent people?
And in the U.S. Congress, all those
Democrats who had originally declared that “without doubt”
Sadam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, now are
conducting a witch-hunt for political purposes against
President Bush and the Republicans. While our brave soldiers
are giving their lives in the trenches every day, some of
these Democratic leaders are comparing American troupes to
“the Nazis” or the “Nol Pot” who killed millions of his own
people. What a disgrace!
I don’t think the American people will
like this political strategy of ‘revisionism.” I think the
Dems are once again underestimating the intelligence of the
people, just as John Kerry did. Deceptive talking points and
twisting of the facts on national TV didn’t do it in the last
campaign. I think it will fail again.
People don’t like Monday morning
quarterbacks. They respect someone willing to make courageous
decisions in a time of need. The country of Sudan offered
Clinton to arrest Osama bin Laden and turn him over to the
U.S. Clinton expressed no interest. That’s why Osama was able
to blow up the World Trade Center. Clinton was too busy with
an intern to make an important decision. Over 3000 civilians
in that building paid for this with their lives.
The above is not meant as a political
statement. It’s a statement from an immigrant who is proud to
be an American, who has lived under tyranny and also American
democracy, and values the difference.
EXTREMISM,
RIGHT OR LEFT, DESTROYS ECONOMIES
Terrorism
will be reduced to the level of a ‘nuisance’ under Kerry. I
have never seen terrorism being a nuisance. It always involves
killing of many innocent civilians, women and children. He
criticizes Bush for not gathering a world-wide coalition
similar to what his father did in the first Gulf war. Yet Kerry
voted AGAINST the first Gulf War, inspite of the world-wide
coalition and the U.N approval of the military action, while he
defended Saddam.
Some call
Kerry the worst ultra-liberal since McGovern and Carter. The
latter virtually destroyed our economy, creating the highest
inflation rate, and the highest interest rates in 100 years.
Such extremists always leave economies in shambles, no matter
where in the world they are. And that is what’s important for
investors and business people.
Mr. K just
said that the Federal government should go after companies
which hire illegal aliens. That’s naïve. California’s
economy would come to a standstill. On construction sites,
about 95% of the workers are foreign. And the majority are
illegal. Who would take their place?
Mr. K goes
around saying that Medicare costs will rise a hefty 17% early
next year, blaming Bush. What he doesn’t say is that this law
was signed by President Clinton, after Mr. K voted for it.
I am sorry
if a few of our democratic friends don’t approve of my
comments in this area. The last time we even had a couple of
cancellations. I never understand that mindset. It certainly
doesn’t hurt me financially.
I have been reading Business Week for over 20 years and
certainly disagree with some of the very liberal columnists in
that magazine. But I don’t cancel. I just don’t read those
parts, although I do pay for them.
I am neither
Republican nor Democrat. I think the two party system stinks.
They have the parties, and we get the bills. Neither allow
other candidates to participate in the pre-election process.
They fight tooth and nail, with armies of lawyers, to keep
third party candidates off of the ballots.
That’s not
the democratic process. I would like to hear debates with some
of the other candidates giving their views and “plans.” It
might be enlightening for the voters. What are the two parties
afraid of? Party crashers?
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MASS
MURDER IN RUSSIA
Moslem
terrorists held over 1000 hostages captive in a school gym in
Russia for several days. The outcome: over 300, mostly
children, dead.
The U.S.
media calls these terrorists “rebels, insurgents,” etc. The
same goes for the killers in Iraq. Why doesn’t anyone dare
call them what they are: Moslem fanatics, terrorists and
mass-murderers?
Who can mass
murder hundred’s of children? Who can shoot them in the back?
And in Iraq, what kind of people can cut the heads off of
living human beings with a knife?
You can’t
negotiate with people like this. You can’t bargain and ask
“can’t we all just get along?”
There is only one way to deal with these lunatics.
Obviously,
no one likes conflict or war. No one liked World War II either,
but it had to be done. They only mistake was trying to appease
Hitler before the war, in the hope that it wouldn’t come to a
war. Remember Britain’s Foreign Minister Chamberlain who
thought he could talk Hitler into peace?
Instead of
negotiating, they should have tried to remove this mentally
deranged Austrian, Hitler. It would have saved many millions of
lives.
Removing
Saddam Hussein has cost over 1000 lives of U.S. soldiers. That
of course is very sad. But it may have saved hundreds of
thousands. (It’s fewer than are killed on our highways in a
week.) Kerry now says it was the “wrong war at the wrong
time.” Yet he voted for it.
It takes an
incredible amount of courage to do something which is not
popular with a large segment of the population, or even the
world. But that’s what leadership is all about. The U.S.
tried very hard to get the European nations to stop the
massacres in Bosnia. They wouldn’t. Finally, President
Clinton and the U. S. Congress decided to do it. They saved
thousands of lives.
The war on
terror can only be won if the terrorists and mass-murderers
know they don’t have a chance to survive over the long term.
The list of countries which have lately been victims of these
Moslem terrorists grows constantly. Any weakness in the
determination to fight these monsters only makes them stronger.
Make no
mistake: we are in the midst of a world-wide religious war. And
we better act accordingly.
Watching the
last debate, I formulated my own plans. “I have a plan” to
make each one of our subscribers multi-millionaires, I just
can’t tell you by when...and I can’t reveal the details. I
have another plan which will make each one of our trades a
winner. I have a plan to end poverty world-wide, a plan to ban
natural disasters, and a plan to reduce terrorism to a
‘nuisance.’
All those
plans are currently in a “lockbox”, so I can’t disclose
them. And if you believe all that, I know who will get your
vote.
PFIZER
CNBC
today had the most amazing
interview: the Director of Marketing of Pfizer, Mr. Rost. He is
in favor of allowing the re-importation of drugs from Canada
and other countries, totally opposite to the strongly voiced
position of the CEO of Pfizer. Mr. Rost says that there is no
evidence that such drugs are ‘unsafe,’ something which
seems logical to us. After all, do we think that Canadians are
idiots and take counterfeit drugs?
Mr. Rost
says that what is much more harmful is the fact that today’s
high drug prices prevent many people from using drugs they
need. Lower prices would help all these ill people…We
congratulate Mr. Rost for his courage. We would guess that his
days at Pfizer are numbered.
IRRATIONAL
BEHAVIOR
(from an
article by John Mauldin, www.frontline.com)
The Nobel Prize in economics
in 2002 went to a psychologist, Dr. Daniel Kahneman, who helped
pioneer the field of behavioral finance. If I can crudely
summarize his brilliant work, he basically shows that investors
are irrational. But what gets him a Nobel is he shows that we
are predictably irrational. We continue to make the same
mistakes over and over. One of the biggest is our common inability to take a loss. He goes
into long and magnificent explanations of why this is, but the
bottom line is that taking a loss is so painful, we simply
avoid it.
While technical indicators
cannot be rigorously programmed to yield an automatic, always
winning or low loss, don't-think-about-it trading system, they
do provide some useful insight. Volume, direction, momentum,
stochastic, and so on are reflective of market psychology. With
a great deal of time and effort, astute traders can use this
data to determine what Mark Finn calls the "gist" of
the market.
My
comments: for
over three decades I have preached that taking a loss is the
most important discipline for anyone who wants to be a
successful investor. It allows you to put dead capital into
something which can be much more productive. Furthermore, it
gives psychological relief, so that your mind can once again
take a positive attitude.
ECONOMIC
ILLITERACY
Watching the
Congressional hearing with Dr. Greenspan, I often cringe when I
hear the questions from members of Congress. Obviously there is
a great deficiency in economic education in this country. And
these are the people who make economic policy!
They expect
the head of the Federal Reserve to resolve every problem in the
world, including finding a job for someone who just lost his,
or preventing the demise of a company which lacked smart
management. Hey guys, that’s life. It’s ‘Survival of the
fittest.'
In the
recent hearing, one member called Dr. G “His Excellency.”
He said that the tax cuts would produce a budget
deficiency of over 2 trillion dollars OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS,
and that this money “is removed from the economy.”
I couldn’t believe it! Tax cuts allow taxpayers to
keep more of the money they earn. How is this ‘removed’
from the economy?
The
Bush tax cuts are equal to about 1% of total governmental
spending. How can these be responsible for all the disasters
the opposition party describes?
I often hear
such total economic ignorance from the representative of
Massachusetts. Maybe we should send an economic task force to
that state in order to educate their “public servants”
first, and then educate their teachers. Obviously, there is
something drastically lacking. Or is it something in the water?
Congress
could save the country over $150 billion per year by relieving
the taxpayer from the onerous burden of the tax return. That’s
the amount of money American’s spend on their tax prepares
and time to gather all the information. It does NOT include any
money paid in taxes. Congress loves to put everything in
terms of 10 years. Well, this would save the country $1.5
TRILLION. That’s a bunch.
NASDAQ
30,000, and DOW 41,000 IN FOUR YEARS?
Harry Dent,
who wrote a best selling book on demographics, has some
startling forecasts for the stock market, based on the number
of people reaching their biggest savings or investment years.
Our friend, John Mauldin, had some great excerpts from Mr.
Dent’s writings. Here they are:
"By
2008," he breathlessly avers, "I see the Dow headed
to a high of 35,000 to 41,000. Sound outrageous? Perhaps it
does, but it is based on a standard projection using the Dow's
rate of growth that began in late 1982.
"Since
1982, we have enjoyed nearly twenty years of continual
prosperity that has been marred by only a few brief
corrections. The Dow and the S&P 500 have increased at an
average annual rate of 17%. When shown on a ratio graph instead
of numerical graph like the chart below, this rate of growth
appears as a channel that clearly projects a peak of around
41,000 by late 2008. This is even higher than the projected
high of 35,000 that I forecast in my 1998 book The Roaring
2000s.
"And,
of course, I see the NASDAQ growing at an even faster rate than
the Dow and the S&P. Based on the NASDAQ channel of growth
we should see it hit 30,000 plus by 2008."
John Mauldin
comments: “A
mere 20 times on your money in the NASDAQ in just 4 years. P/E
ratios somewhere in the range of 1,000. How could we miss this
opportunity? Normally, you would consign this type of thinking
to the delusional category rather than merely single
derivative. However, Dent wrote a quite cogent and major
best-seller (The Roaring 2000s). He is taken seriously in many
circles. But investment circles should not be one of them.“
My
comments: If that
forecast comes true, everyone has a wonderful opportunity to
become immensely rich over the next four years. The Federal
Budget deficit will turn into a huge surplus because of the
capital gains taxes paid. Money will come from the moon to
invest in our markets. We will all be driving Rolls Royce’s,
Mercedes, Ferraris,
etc. Oil prices will go to $80 per bbl, but who cares.
Of
course, the great prosperity here will produce an incredible
Trade Deficit, as U.S. consumers buy every new toy produced in
countries such as Japan, Korea, and China. The dollars piling
up overseas will be reinvested in the U.S., which produces a
huge Current Account Deficit, which gives economists another
opportunity to ring the alarm bells, and ask: “ what will
happen when all the foreigners come at the same time,
withdrawing their money?.”
The
prosperity will cause the Fed to hike interest rates to
double-digit levels, fearing potential inflation. This will
collapse the housing boom, cause mortgage lenders to go
bankrupt, and overnight we will be in a depression.
You see,
there is a downside to everything. Maybe we should be happy
with a Dow of 12,000 in 4 years.
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